Russia vs Burkina Faso
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia Win Value | 4/11 1.35 | 68% | 75% | +7% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.65 | 20% | 16% | -4% |
| Burkina Faso Win | 7/1 7.95 | 12% | 9% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Russia on strong home run (LDWWDDWW), Burkina Faso poor away (LWLLW). Avg goals: Russia score 0.88, concede 0.38 at home — very defensively solid. Burkina Faso concede 1.11 per game.
H2H: Limited data — friendly context reduces urgency but Russia's home advantage is clear.
Stakes: Friendly match, low tactical stakes, but Russia playing at home gives motivation edge for a positive display.
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Russia's defensive solidity and Burkina Faso's poor away scoring record. Over 2.5 supported by Russia's high xG of 3.25 and recent high-scoring home results.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no recent competitive H2H history available; friendly context taken into account.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 3-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Russia's xG of 3.25 and recent home results including 3-0 and 4-1 strongly suggest this game will exceed 2.5 total goals, especially against a Burkina Faso side that struggles to defend away from home. Over 2.5 is well supported by the statistical model and form data.