Saburtalo vs Larne

Tue 11 Aug 2026

CleverScores Prediction

1 – 0

Home Win Medium · 63%

Saburtalo

51%

Draw

29%

Larne

20%

📖 The Preview

After a goalless first leg, this one is perfectly set up for a nervy, tight affair, and that is exactly what we are expecting. Saburtalo have the home advantage and hold a slight edge in the win probabilities, which matters a lot when you are playing for progression in front of your own crowd. Larne have shown inconsistency recently with those back-to-back losses in their last ten, and away from home in a tie like this, that can catch up with you. One goal settles it, and nothing else goes in.

Generated by CleverScores AI

💰 Finding the Value

Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.

Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Edge
Saburtalo Win	4/6 1.68	55%	51%	-4%
Draw	5/2 3.55	26%	29%	+3%
Larne Win	4/1 4.90	19%	20%	+1%

No value markets in this fixture — our model and the bookmakers broadly agree on the 1X2 outcome.

Edge is the gap between our model probability and the bookmaker consensus. A +5% or larger edge means we think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does. Odds shown are the median across all bookies in both fractional (UK) and decimal formats — always verify current prices with your bookmaker. Predictions are for information only and are not financial advice.

⚡ Stakes & Context

🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔢 First leg 0-0 (2026-08-04): tie level on aggregate going into second leg.
🎯 Final scoreline overridden to AI pick 1-0 (aggregate-tie: AI tactical reasoning trusted over Poisson form blend)
🎯 Probabilities recomputed from final scoreline 1-0 (aggregate-tie override): 52/32/16

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Saburtalo averaging 1.61 goals scored at home, Larne averaging just 0.56 goals scored overall with recent blanks in last three matches
H2H: Limited data; first leg ended 0-0, suggesting tight, low-scoring encounter
Stakes: Knockout elimination tie — Saburtalo must win or face extra time; Larne will park defensively to force penalties but lack attacking threat
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.

⚔️ Head to Head

First leg ended 0-0 at Larne — tight, cagey tie with no goals across 90 minutes, suggesting both defences are well-organized. Saburtalo will be emboldened playing at home in the second leg.

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.

Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.

CleverScore confidence: 63/99 · Medium

Predictions are AI-generated from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org