Spain vs Austria

Spain dismantled Austria with a dominant 3-0 victory in this World Cup knockout fixture. Oyarzabal opened the scoring in the 36th minute with an assist from Cucurella, then Porro added a second on 66 minutes after being set up by Baena. Oyarzabal sealed it late on, finishing a move that again involved Cucurella's assist in the 89th minute. It was a controlled, clinical performance that never really looked like going anywhere other than Spain's way once they got ahead.

Our model's most likely outcome at 78% was exactly how the match unfolded. The pre-match call of 3-0 hit the mark, though it's worth noting that while the scoreline matched perfectly, the prediction sat firmly among the plausible outcomes rather than anything bordering on certainty. Before kickoff, Spain's excellent recent form and the substantial 308-point ELO advantage over an Austria side with poor away record shaped the expectation. The knockout stage context meant both teams would be fully committed, but the gulf in quality was always going to tell. The match played out broadly in line with what that picture suggested: Spain controlled proceedings and finished their chances when they came.

Other models had leaned slightly different on the exact scoreline, but everyone was singing from roughly the same hymn sheet about the direction. This was a heavyweight comfortably handling the step up in opposition, and our model read the room correctly.