St. Truiden vs Gent
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden Win Value | 1/1 1.96 | 47% | 73% | +26% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 25% | 17% | -8% |
| Gent Win | 9/4 3.35 | 28% | 10% | -18% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 13 bookmakers, the consensus favoured St. Truiden (47% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 St. Truiden chasing top-2 (P3)
- 💀 Gent already relegated (P5) — nothing to play for
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Truiden averaging 1.46 goals scored at home with recent 4-1 and 2-0 results; Gent averaging only 0.85 goals scored with four of their last five featuring zero goals for them
H2H: Balanced over 8 meetings but St. Truiden won the last home encounter 3-1 and the most recent meeting was a 0-0 in Gent — home advantage is a key differentiator
Stakes: St. Truiden in a top-2 race (P3) vs a Gent side already relegated (P5) — motivation gap is enormous and a decisive factor this late in the season
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Gent's inability to score away from home recently; Under 3.5 contested but model and form support 3 goals from St. Truiden alone
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is evenly split across 8 meetings (3-2-3), but the most recent home game ended 3-1 to St. Truiden — high-scoring clashes at STVV's ground have occurred before, and a relegated Gent side is unlikely to replicate past competitive performances.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Gent have failed to score in four of their last five matches and their away record is poor (LDLW). A relegated team with no motivation facing a full-strength, well-rested St. Truiden defence is very unlikely to find the net — BTTS is not expected, with Gent shut out.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
St. Truiden's xG of 3.31 and their recent high-scoring home performances (4-1, 2-0) against a Gent side offering minimal defensive resistance point clearly to over 2.5 goals, driven entirely by the hosts — total of 3 goals is firmly in the over territory.