Stockport County vs Stevenage
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County Win Value | 5/6 1.85 | 50% | 68% | +18% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.45 | 27% | 23% | -4% |
| Stevenage Win | 3/1 4.15 | 23% | 9% | -14% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Stockport County chasing top-2 (P3)
- 😴 Stevenage mid-table (P6) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on League One history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Stockport averaging 2.02 goals scored at home with recent 3-1, 1-0 wins; Stevenage averaging just 0.94 goals scored but defensively solid (1.0 conceded avg)
H2H: Alternating results, 2.7 avg goals/game, last 5 meetings all decided by 1-2 goals — tight games are the norm
Stakes: Stockport in a promotion push (P3) vs Stevenage comfortable mid-table (P6) — significant motivation gap favours the home side
Betting: BTTS likely given Stevenage's ability to score even in away losses; Over 2.5 leans yes given Stockport's attacking xG (3.03) and H2H trend
⚔️ Head to Head
Stevenage hold a slight H2H edge (4W vs 3W) but matches are consistently close with no draws — all recent meetings decided by one or two goals, including a 0-1 Stockport win and 2-1 Stevenage win in the last two H2H games.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Stevenage have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (including away fixtures) and Stockport's defence concedes an average of 1.3 per game — BTTS is the most likely outcome given both teams' recent goal involvement.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Stockport's xG of 3.03 and their recent scores (3-1, 3-1) suggest they can hit multiple goals; H2H average of 2.7 goals/game and the competitive tension of a promotion-chasing home side push this over the 2.5 threshold, though Stevenage's defensive discipline keeps it modest.