USA vs Germany
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Win Value | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 28% | +9% |
| Draw Value | 10/3 4.30 | 22% | 37% | +15% |
| Germany Win | 3/5 1.59 | 59% | 35% | -24% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: USA in decent home form (W recent run) but Germany's class and ELO edge them; Germany form data limited but historical quality speaks
H2H: Germany won last 2 meetings including 3-1 in USA in Oct 2023 — clear dominance pattern
Stakes: Pre-World Cup 2026 friendly — both sides motivated to test squads but no competitive pressure; Germany likely to field strong XI given the occasion
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Germany have won both recent meetings, including 3-1 in the USA in October 2023 and 1-0 in 2014. Clear away dominance pattern favours Germany.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.