📊 Recent Form
Willem II
NEC Nijmegen
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts NEC Nijmegen at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have NEC Nijmegen at 45% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 60% — a gap against us of 15 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as low at 44/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Willem II have a tough afternoon ahead of them here. The head-to-head record tells you a lot — NEC have won four of these eight meetings and drawn three, leaving Willem II with just the one win. Combine that with a significant injury list for the hosts, including Culum, Lachkar, Schuurman and Zarrouk all unavailable, and NEC look well placed to nick this one. The models give NEC a 45% win probability, and with a low-scoring game expected, a tight 0-1 away win makes plenty of sense.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Win Value | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 30% | +11% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.40 | 21% | 25% | +4% |
| NEC Nijmegen Win | 4/7 1.58 | 60% | 45% | -15% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Willem II avg 1.08 scored/2.1 conceded — poor defensive record and limited attack; NEC Nijmegen solid defensively (0.9 conceded avg) with recent W-L-D form away.
H2H: NEC lead the series 4-1-3 across last 8 meetings; fixture historically low-scoring at 1.4 goals/game average.
Stakes: Both sides in mid-table early in season, no relegation/promotion pressure — no extra motivation boost applicable.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
NEC Nijmegen dominate this fixture historically (4 wins vs 1 for Willem II), and meetings are consistently low-scoring — 1.4 goals per game average across last 8, with multiple 0-1 and 0-0 results. The 0-1 scoreline has appeared twice in recent H2H and aligns with the statistical model's top prediction.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
