Bills at Texans
Win Probabilities
From the engine's power ratings, adjusted for home field and rest, then mapped through the margin distribution. Not a blend of the market — this is our own number.
Engine vs The Line
We disagree with the market here. Worth knowing: across 1,139 backtested games our disagreements were right 41% of the time. We publish them regardless — and we publish how they land.
Matchup Facts
Venue and rest come from the schedule feed and feed directly into the model; surface and weather are context we show but don't yet model.
How The Model Sees It
Our rating has Houston Texans as the stronger side by 9 rating points, which on its own is worth about 0.3 points on the scoreboard (BUF 1,608, HOU 1,617).
Home field adds 1.4 points to HOU — a measured figure from our backtest, not the traditional three, because home advantage in the modern NFL is considerably smaller than it used to be.
That lands on a projected margin of +1.7, and running that through the historical spread of actual results against projections gives Houston Texans at 55%.
The market disagrees. The closing line makes Buffalo Bills the favourite by 1.5. Our engine sees only results — it has no view on injuries, roster changes or who a team has signed. When we split from the line, history says we're wrong more often than right, and we show you that rather than dressing the disagreement up as an edge.
More From Week 1
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