AS Roma Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 10)
AS Roma's 2-0 victory over Lazio followed the script our model had outlined almost perfectly. Giancarlo Mancini proved the architect of Roma's dominance, opening the scoring in the 40th minute from Nicolò Pisilli's assist before doubling the lead in the 66th with Paolo Dybala's setup. The second-half drama—red cards issued to Wesley Franca and Nicolò Rovella in quick succession at the 70-minute mark—punctuated an otherwise controlled performance that never truly required Roma to labour.
Our prediction of an exact 2-0 scoreline proved accurate, and the underlying factors we'd identified before kickoff largely materialized. Roma's superior home form, averaging 2.62 goals scored at the Stadio Olimpico, contrasted sharply with Lazio's struggles on the road, a gap widened considerably by their depleted defensive resources. The motivation differential between a Roma side chasing top-four qualification and a Lazio outfit effectively playing for pride proved decisive. As expected, this derby resisted becoming a goal-fest—the historical pattern of these fixtures producing sparse scoring held firm, with the 2-0 outcome sitting comfortably within our expected goal projections and aligned with both the Poisson distribution and our primary AI estimate.
What emerged was a straightforward display of Roma's greater hunger meeting Lazio's limited ambition in this particular moment of their respective seasons. The expulsions in the closing stages added texture to what had already been decided, but Roma's efficiency through Mancini—scoring twice from limited opportunities—suggested they had simply wanted it more on the day.
AS Roma secured a 3-2 victory over Parma in a match that defied the script in its execution, though not its outcome. Daniele Malen's 22nd-minute opener, assisted by Paulo Dybala, appeared to confirm the expected dominance, but Parma staged an unlikely second-half resurgence. Goals from Giacomo Strefezza in the 47th minute and Mateo Keita in the 87th flipped the narrative entirely, briefly suggesting an improbable comeback. Roma reasserted control in the closing moments, with Rensch equalizing in the 90th minute before Malen converted a penalty in stoppage time to secure the three points.
Our model predicted a 0-2 Roma victory with 62% confidence in a Roma win, correctly identifying the result direction but missing the actual goal sequence. The prediction captured Roma's clear advantage—their superior motivation in the top-four chase, recent scoring form, and historical dominance in the fixture—which ultimately proved decisive. However, the analysis underestimated Parma's ability to find the net, particularly in transition. While we'd flagged Roma's solid defensive record and Parma's typically low home scoring output as reasons to expect a comfortable away win, the hosts demonstrated enough quality in the second half to trouble their visitors.
The late drama, including Britschgi's red card in the 90+9th minute, embodied the volatility that separates predicted scorelines from actual ones. Roma's 3-2 victory vindicates the underlying assessment of their superiority, even if the path to that win involved considerably more Parma resistance than the model anticipated. The result underscores how form and motivation imbalances translate to results, even when the precise execution differs from expectations.
AS Roma dismantled Fiorentina 4-0 at the Stadio Olimpico, delivering a dominant display that exceeded our pre-match forecast of a 3-1 victory. Giancarlo Mancini opened the scoring in the 13th minute off Niccolò Pisilli's assist, before Wesley Franca doubled the lead just four minutes later from Matías Hermoso's cross. The Fiorentina defense unraveled further when Hermoso himself found the net in the 34th minute, capitalizing on another well-constructed Roma move. Pisilli sealed the rout with a fourth goal in the 58th minute, finishing off Dani Malen's assist in what became a clinical display of attacking football. Our model correctly identified the result direction—Roma's superiority was evident from the win probability assigned (82%)—but underestimated the margin of victory by one goal.
The prediction's miss hinged on a critical miscalculation: we flagged Fiorentina's road form and historical head-to-head patterns suggesting they would find the back of the net, leading us toward a 3-1 scoreline. The visitors' recent away record and the rivalry's average of 2.9 goals per game suggested more resilience than proved justified. What emerged instead was a complete Roma performance in which their attacking movement and Fiorentina's defensive vulnerabilities created a chasm. The early goals—both arriving within the opening quarter-hour—likely shifted the match's psychology, allowing Roma to play with control and precision while Fiorentina abandoned structural discipline chasing an impossible comeback. Form and historical precedent only carry so much predictive weight when one side's execution reaches this level.
AS Roma swept past Bologna with a commanding 2-0 victory, with Daan Malen opening the scoring in just the seventh minute following an assist from Niccolo El Aynaoui. The early breakthrough set the tone for a match that rarely looked competitive thereafter. Malen would later turn provider before the interval, setting up El Aynaoui for Roma's second in the 45th minute to effectively seal the contest.
Our pre-match prediction of a 1-1 draw missed the mark considerably. The model had flagged Bologna's domestic struggles and Roma's inconsistency on the road, factors that seemed to point toward a cautious, low-scoring affair. The absence of key strikers like Dallinga and Dovbyk suggested limited attacking threat from both sides, reasoning that supported our draw forecast. What emerged instead was a Roma side that looked assured and clinical, with Malen and El Aynaoui combining for both goals in a display of incisive attacking football that belied the pre-match concerns about their firepower.
The margin of victory was more decisive than the underlying conditions suggested it might be. Bologna never truly threatened, and Roma's early goals removed any incentive for either team to take risks. While our assessment of the defensive frailties on both sides proved correct—the match remained relatively tidy defensively—we significantly underestimated Roma's capacity to capitalize on the chances they created. The prediction underperformed partly because form data and recent absences don't always account for how a team performs on a given matchday, a reminder that even thorough statistical foundations can be upended by execution on the pitch.
AS Roma and Atalanta played out a 1-1 draw on Sunday, a result that departed significantly from our pre-match model's expectations. Atalanta struck first through Nicolo Krstovic in the 12th minute, with Marco De Roon providing the assist, giving the visitors an early foothold. Roma responded before the interval when Gianluca Hermoso leveled the match in the 45th minute from Devid Rensch's assist, setting up what promised to be a competitive second half. The teams ultimately could not be separated, each leaving the Stadio Olimpico with a point.
Our model predicted a 2-3 scoreline in Atalanta's favor, with the away side favored to win, but this forecast proved wide of the mark on multiple counts. The prediction failed to anticipate either the defensive solidity that would emerge—particularly Roma's ability to respond quickly to Krstovic's opener—or the relatively even contest that unfolded. The draw represents a significant miss for our model, which assigned zero probability to this outcome. The factors that shaped this match, whether tactical adjustments at halftime or individual performances in key moments, did not align with the pregame assessment of likely goal flow or the balance of play between these two sides.
This result underscores the inherent difficulty in forecasting Italian football, where defensive discipline and tactical flexibility often override expected attacking patterns. Both teams showed capacity to create and to limit chances, ultimately producing the kind of stalemate that defied our pregame conviction about a higher-scoring, more one-sided affair.
AS Roma dismantled Pisa with a dominant first-half performance that ultimately fell short of our pre-match prediction of a 4-3 scoreline. Daniele Malen proved the decisive force, opening the scoring in just the third minute before adding two more goals either side of the interval—first in the 43rd minute with an assist from Rensch, then again after 52 minutes through a Soule setup. The hat-trick display underlined Roma's attacking intent at home, though it came within a defensive framework that Pisa simply could not penetrate. Our model correctly identified the result direction, but misjudged both the final margin and, critically, the nature of Roma's dominance.
The prediction anticipated a high-scoring affair reflecting Roma's attacking threat combined with Pisa's vulnerability to transitions, yet what actually unfolded was a one-sided affair rather than the open contest we'd flagged. While the early breakthrough through Malen did align with our expectation of Roma's scoring frequency at home, the clean sheet proved the significant variance. Pisa's counter-attacking opportunities—the dangerous moments we'd projected would translate to goals—failed to materialize with any real conviction. Roma's possession control and structural discipline prevented the kind of set-piece or transition threats that typically characterize such matchups between Serie A's upper and lower echelons.
This outcome represents a partial success tempered by an important oversight. We correctly read Roma's superiority, but underestimated how thoroughly they would control proceedings. The absence of Pisa's expected attacking returns suggests either superior Roma defensive organization or a significant gap in relative squad quality that our model weighted less heavily than the actual performance demanded.
Inter dismantled AS Roma with a commanding 5-2 victory that exposed the limits of the visiting defense in ways our pre-match prediction failed to anticipate. Lautaro Martínez set the tone with an opening goal in the first minute, assisted by Matteo Thuram, establishing immediate dominance that Roma briefly disrupted through Giancarlo Mancini's 40th-minute header. The match pivoted decisively before halftime when Hakan Calhanoglu restored Inter's two-goal lead in the 45th minute, and the home side never relinquished control. Martínez added his second in the 52nd minute, Thuram converted in the 55th, and Nicolò Barella sealed the result with a 63rd-minute finish. Lorenzo Pellegrini's 70th-minute goal provided mere consolation in a scoreline that reflected Inter's overwhelming superiority.
Our model correctly identified Inter as the likely winner but significantly underestimated the margin and quality of execution. The 2-0 prediction captured the expected defensive control and midfield dominance we'd flagged, yet it failed to account for Roma's complete capitulation in the second half and Inter's clinical finishing across multiple phases of play. While our analysis correctly emphasized Inter's home advantage and structural superiority, the actual performance suggested Roma lacked the tactical resilience or personnel to maintain defensive shape once Thuram and Martínez found their rhythm. The prediction acknowledged Inter's attacking depth but underweighted how decisively they would convert chances when Roma's backline faltered. This remains a correct directional call but a meaningful overestimate of Roma's ability to compete, particularly after the interval.
AS Roma dispatched Lecce with a 1-0 victory at the Stadio Olimpico, securing the result through Riccardo Vaz's 57th-minute finish following Mateo Hermoso's assist. The goal arrived in the match's defining moment, with Roma's superiority in possession and territory finally translating into the decisive breakthrough that their domination deserved. Lecce's compact defensive shape held firm for the opening hour, but once Roma found their opening, the visitors offered little in response to threaten an equalizer.
Our pre-match model predicted exactly this outcome—a 1-0 Roma victory—and the match unfolded largely according to the underlying patterns we'd identified. Roma's ability to convert limited opportunities against well-organized defenses proved decisive, while Lecce's predictable approach of prioritizing solidity over creative ambition meant they generated minimal attacking pressure throughout. The home advantage at the Olimpico factored meaningfully, as did the disparity in squad depth and competitive level between Serie A's upper-middle tier and a smaller-budget side built to frustrate rather than dominate. The narrow margin reflected the reality of the contest: Roma were clearly superior but faced an opponent whose tactical discipline and defensive structure prevented a more emphatic scoreline.
This result reinforces the patterns that shaped our prediction. Lecce's resilience kept the match tight, but it was never enough to extract anything from a Roma side with clearer finishing instincts and greater control. The 1-0 scoreline remains the most probable outcome when a stronger team encounters organized resistance, and that probability played out on the pitch.
Bologna's 4-3 victory over AS Roma in this Europa League encounter unfolded as a dramatic seven-goal affair that validated our directional call while wildly overshooting the scoreline we'd anticipated. Our model predicted a 0-1 away win for Bologna, and while the Italian visitors did indeed emerge victorious, the actual narrative proved far more chaotic than a single-goal margin suggested.
The match followed a pattern consistent with what we'd flagged pre-kickoff: Bologna's disciplined setup generated early dividends when Jens Rowe opened the scoring in the 22nd minute, setting the tone for their counter-attacking approach. Yet what distinguished this fixture from our expected outcome was Roma's refusal to surrender meekly. Niccolò Ndicka equalized before the interval, then the second half became a furious back-and-forth. Matteo Bernardeschi's penalty extended Bologna's lead at the interval, Castro added a third, and despite Dries Malen reducing the deficit from the spot and Lorenzo Pellegrini drawing Roma level in the 80th minute, it was Nicolò Cambiaghi's extra-time finish that ultimately separated the sides. The defensive solidity we'd identified as Bologna's principal weapon held firm when it mattered most, yet Roma's attacking threat proved more potent than our model had assessed. Our prediction correctly identified Bologna as the likely winner and their counter-pressing threat, but fundamentally underestimated the goalscoring intensity both sides would unleash in what became a thrilling showcase of attacking football rather than the controlled, low-scoring affair we'd envisioned.
Como's 2-1 victory over AS Roma vindicated our directional call while exposing the limitations of our exact scoreline forecast. Danylo Malen's seventh-minute penalty gave Roma an early advantage, but Como's response proved decisive. Anastasios Douvikas leveled matters in the 59th minute following Alessio Valle's assist, then Diego Carlos sealed the result with a 79th-minute goal—a sequence that unfolded dramatically after Wesley's red card for Roma in the 64th minute left the visitors operating at a numerical disadvantage.
Our prediction of a 1-0 Como win captured the fundamental dynamic correctly: a compact home side frustrating a technically superior opponent into a narrow defeat. The factors we highlighted—Como's counter-attacking efficiency against Roma's vulnerability in away fixtures where space compression proves effective—remained evident throughout. However, we misjudged the goal tally. Roma's early penalty suggested they might convert their limited opportunities into a single breakthrough, yet Como's greater clinical efficiency, bolstered by their numerical advantage following Wesley's dismissal, allowed them to find two finishes rather than one. The red card proved the decisive variable we failed to anticipate, transforming a tightly contested match into a game Roma couldn't control in the latter stages.
The result reinforces that while tactical frameworks and historical patterns provide reliable guides to outcome direction, the margin of victory depends on variables—individual mistakes, disciplinary decisions, finishing efficiency—that remain inherently difficult to forecast with precision.