San Jose Earthquakes Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 7)
Seattle's 3-2 victory over San Jose delivered a result that confounded our pre-match model, which had predicted a 2-2 draw with the Earthquakes favored at 46% to win. The match itself proved more decisive than expected, though it followed the open, attacking pattern we'd anticipated. Nicolás Fernández gave San Jose an early advantage in the second minute, but Seattle found their footing through an Anthony Rusnak penalty on 43 minutes. The Sounders took control after the interval when Jesús Ferreira made it 2-1 in the 55th minute, extending their home dominance. San Jose clawed back through Philly Judd's 69th-minute equalizer to set up a tense finale, but Oafs De Rosario's finish in the 89th minute ultimately proved decisive.
The prediction miss highlights a familiar challenge: our model flagged the heavy rain and slippery conditions as favoring direct play and a lower goalmouth intensity, yet both teams maintained their attacking intent throughout. While we correctly identified this as a fixture likely to see both sides score—both teams delivered on that front—we underestimated Seattle's home resilience and their ability to overturn an early deficit. The Earthquakes, despite their league-leading position and away form, couldn't sustain their title-contention intensity through 90 minutes. Both sides did deliver the kind of open, goal-rich encounter we'd observed in the recent 3-2 and 2-2 scorelines between them, confirming the fixture's inherent volatility even when our exact prediction fell short.
San Jose Earthquakes and Vancouver Whitecaps played to a 1-1 draw in a match that departed significantly from our pre-game expectations. P. Judd gave the hosts an early advantage with a fourth-minute goal assisted by P. Marie, positioning San Jose to control the match as anticipated. However, Vancouver showed considerably more resilience on the road than our model accounted for, holding firm through most of the second half before S. Berhalter equalized in the 76th minute to secure the draw.
Our prediction of a 3-1 San Jose victory missed the mark on both the result direction and final scoreline. The model flagged San Jose's home advantage and typical ability to convert chances against mid-table opposition, while projecting Vancouver's away defensive vulnerability as a significant factor. While San Jose's early goal and home-field control aligned with those expectations, Vancouver's defensive organization—particularly in the second half—proved more effective than the historical patterns suggested. The Whitecaps limited San Jose's conversion rate considerably, preventing the multiple-goal performance the model anticipated.
The draw represents a divergence from the expected narrative of dominant home performance and visiting collapse. San Jose created the early platform through Judd's finish, but couldn't build on that advantage despite possession and positional control. Vancouver's response through Berhalter demonstrated adaptive defending that resisted the anticipated onslaught. This outcome suggests the away side's defensive profile may be shifting, or that San Jose's attacking efficiency against this particular opponent fell short of historical benchmarks—factors worth monitoring in future matchups between these teams.
San Jose Earthquakes held on for a 3-2 victory against St. Louis City in a match that swung dramatically in the second half. P. Judd's eighth-minute opener gave the visitors an early lead, but St. Louis responded through sheer force of will—S. Cordova leveled the contest in the 51st minute before M. Hartel put the hosts ahead just two minutes later with S. Becher providing the assist. The momentum seemed to have shifted decisively toward the home side, yet San Jose's quality reasserted itself. T. Werner converted a penalty in the 69th minute to equalize, then sealed victory with a second goal in the 83rd minute, assisted by O. Bouda. It was a reminder that comebacks work both ways, and that San Jose's superiority in personnel ultimately proved decisive.
Our model predicted a 1-3 San Jose victory with 91% confidence in the visitors' win. The result direction was correct—San Jose did win—but the actual scoreline delivered four goals rather than the predicted three. Several factors we'd identified beforehand played out as expected. San Jose's exceptional away form and quality gap over a struggling St. Louis side did matter; the visitors' attacking firepower did breach the home defense repeatedly. Yet our prediction underestimated St. Louis's capacity to threaten, likely overlooking how desperation from a relegation-threatened team can temporarily elevate performance. The rain we flagged did appear to impact play, but it didn't suppress the goal count as thoroughly as our model suggested. Both teams exceeded our expected output, producing a tighter contest than the pre-match analysis implied—a reminder that even well-informed predictions remain vulnerable to the match's inherent unpredictability.
San Jose Earthquakes dismantled Austin 5-1 in a result that vindicated our directional call but badly underestimated the hosts' offensive output. Austin struck first through J. Rosales in the ninth minute, momentarily suggesting the competitive balance our model had anticipated. But San Jose's response was decisive and relentless. Jasinski leveled in the 58th minute before Werner converted a penalty four minutes later to turn the match decisively in the hosts' favor. The final twenty minutes became a rout: Judd struck in the 83rd and again in the 88th, sandwiching a Bouda goal in the 85th, with Marie providing two assists in that devastating spell.
Our prediction of a 2-1 San Jose victory correctly identified the winner but fundamentally miscalculated the margin. The rest advantage we flagged—San Jose 186 days fresher than Austin—did prove material, but we underestimated how thoroughly the hosts would exploit it. Austin's injury problems, noted pre-match, appear more severe in hindsight than the available data suggested. The wind we cited as a limiting factor on total goals (pointing toward a 2-3 range) proved inconsequential to what unfolded.
Where the model truly erred was assuming defensive stability would constrain the affair. Austin's away form of 2.41 goals conceded per game, combined with San Jose's 2.33 at home, should have flagged higher scoring potential than our conservative final score suggested. The 5-1 outcome, while unpredicted in specificity, reflected the underlying vulnerabilities both teams carried into the match—we simply failed to weight them heavily enough in real-time analysis.
San Jose Earthquakes delivered a dominant display to dispatch Los Angeles FC 4-1, with the visitors' clinical finishing in a devastating ten-minute spell essentially deciding the contest. Omar Bouda opened the scoring in the 53rd minute after Tristán Werner's assist, before Werner himself made it 2-0 three minutes later. The floodgates opened further when Romain Porteous diverted into his own net in the 58th minute, handing San Jose a commanding 3-0 advantage. Los Angeles briefly broke through when Roberts scored in the 74th minute, but Bouda's second goal capped a comprehensive victory for the league's in-form side.
Our model predicted a 1-3 scoreline with San Jose favored at 76% to win, and while we correctly identified the result direction, the exact goalline eluded us. The prediction leaned on San Jose's exceptional recent form—they arrived having won seven of their last nine matches with a league-leading 2.57 goals per game and just 0.44 conceded—alongside LAFC's inconsistency despite their third-place standing. The Earthquakes duly delivered on their attacking threat, though the manner of their breakthrough was more emphatic than our Poisson-modeled expectation of 2-4 goals. Wind conditions flagged at 26.1 km/h may have dampened technical fluidity early on, but San Jose's clinical conversion rate in that decisive middle period simply overwhelmed their hosts.
The result reinforces San Jose's credentials in the title race, while LAFC's defensive vulnerabilities exposed here—particularly the own goal and the concessions in quick succession—present a more troubling picture than their league position suggests. For San Jose, this performance validates their current trajectory with ruthless precision.
San Jose Earthquakes dominated Sporting Kansas City with a comprehensive 3-1 victory that validated the attacking blueprint both teams brought to the pitch. After J. Bartlett's 27th-minute equalizer gave SKC brief hope, the Earthquakes reasserted control through J. Skahan's brace—first in the 44th minute with an assist from N. Tsakiris, then again in the 49th to establish command. D. Romney's 75th-minute finish, set up by D. Munie, sealed a convincing performance that reflected San Jose's superior execution across the match.
Our model predicted a 3-0 San Jose victory, correctly identifying the result direction but missing Bartlett's early breakthrough that momentarily complicated the narrative. The core analysis held merit: San Jose's high-intensity pressing and clinical finishing in the final third overwhelmed Sporting Kansas City's defensive shape, particularly after halftime. The Earthquakes generated multiple clear-cut chances and converted them efficiently—a pattern we'd flagged as realistic given San Jose's attacking consistency in this fixture. Sporting Kansas City's inability to sustain attacking pressure and their exposure on transitions aligned with pre-match concerns about how they'd manage San Jose's direct, pacey approach.
The one-goal discrepancy in our prediction speaks to the variance inherent in match outcomes. While Bartlett's finish prevented a shutout, it didn't alter the fundamental dominance San Jose demonstrated. The Earthquakes' performance vindicated the scouting assessment that their forward intensity and decisive final-third execution could break through even organized defensive structure. This result reinforces San Jose as the consistently more threatening side in this matchup.
San Jose Earthquakes dominated San Diego in comprehensive fashion, winning 3-0 at home through a performance that combined clinical finishing with San Diego's self-inflicted problems. Nicolás Tsakiris opened the scoring in the 13th minute following a Paul Judd assist, then doubled his tally from the penalty spot in the 34th minute after San Diego's Manu Duah was sent off. Judd added the third himself just before halftime with support from Brent Leroux, effectively ending the contest as a competitive affair well before the final whistle.
Our model predicted a 2-0 San Jose victory, correctly identifying the direction of the result and the general control San Jose would exert at home. The pre-match analysis flagged that San Jose's defensive solidity typically thrives against teams struggling on the road, and that clean sheets at home represent a standard outcome when the home side converts limited high-quality chances. Those underlying patterns held true, though the actual scoreline exceeded expectations. Duah's red card in the 32nd minute fundamentally altered the match's trajectory, providing San Jose with numerical advantage and the penalty-taking opportunity that Tsakiris converted. While our prediction missed the exact margin, the result validated the core tactical assessment: San Jose controlled possession and territory as anticipated, while San Diego's road form limitations were exposed.
The clean sheet and three-goal tally underscore how quickly games shift when one side gains a personnel advantage. San Jose capitalized decisively, though the 3-0 outcome moved beyond the typical scoreline we'd projected for a controlled home performance without such circumstances.