GAETHJEVSTOPURIA

The 8th Day Engine makes Sean O'Malley the pick at 76% with high confidence — the age curve and reach drive most of the edge. The case: at 31 to 38, the age curve tilts toward O'Malley; a 3.5" reach edge for O'Malley; the model rates O'Malley's 20-3 ahead of 14-3 on win percentage. The betting market reads it 23% / 77%, and that consensus carries half of the final number. If O'Malley gets it done, a stoppage is the most likely route (54%).

The 8th Day Engine makes Mauricio Ruffy the pick at 85% with high confidence — form and the age curve drive most of the edge. The case: Ruffy brings the stronger recent run (WWLWW); at 29 to 40, the age curve tilts toward Ruffy; the model rates Ruffy's 14-2 ahead of 23-11 on win percentage. Pushing back: Chandler has been stopped less often; Chandler has the deeper résumé (34 pro fights to 16). The betting market reads it 20% / 80%, and that consensus carries half of the final number. If Ruffy gets it done, a stoppage is the most likely route (70%).

The 8th Day Engine makes Bo Nickal the pick at 68% with high confidence — form and the age curve drive most of the edge. The case: Nickal brings the stronger recent run (WWLWW); at 30 to 33, the age curve tilts toward Nickal. Pushing back: Daukaus has the deeper résumé (21 pro fights to 10); a height advantage for Daukaus. The betting market reads it 27% / 73%, and that consensus carries half of the final number. If Nickal gets it done, a submission is the most likely route (41%).

The 8th Day Engine makes Diego Lopes the pick at 57% with low confidence — record quality and the age curve drive most of the edge. The case: the model rates Lopes's 28-8 ahead of 0-0 on win percentage; at 31 to 34, the age curve tilts toward Lopes. Pushing back: the stance matchup favours Garcia; Garcia brings the stronger recent run (LWWWW). The betting market reads it 42% / 58%, and that consensus carries half of the final number. If Lopes gets it done, the scorecards is the most likely route (39%).

The 8th Day Engine makes Josh Hokit the pick at 81% with high confidence — form and the age curve drive most of the edge. The case: Hokit brings the stronger recent run (WWWW); at 28 to 41, the age curve tilts toward Hokit. Pushing back: a 5.5" reach edge for Lewis; a height advantage for Lewis. The betting market reads it 23% / 77%, and that consensus carries half of the final number. If Hokit gets it done, the scorecards is the most likely route (60%).

The 8th Day Engine makes Ciryl Gane the pick at 60% with medium confidence — form and the age curve drive most of the edge. The case: Gane brings the stronger recent run (WWWL); at 36 to 38, the age curve tilts toward Gane; a 2" reach edge for Gane. The betting market reads it 49% / 51%, and that consensus carries half of the final number. Worth knowing: the raw model is even more convinced than the books on this one. If Gane gets it done, the scorecards is the most likely route (60%).