Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian
📖 The Preview
Aberdeen have been in decent nick lately, rattling off four wins on the spin before a brief wobble, while Hearts have been a bit inconsistent with that LWLWWL run suggesting they can't quite string things together. The head-to-head is pretty even overall, but Aberdeen at home with that recent momentum gives them the edge. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair where Aberdeen nick it with a single goal, nothing more needed.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen Win Value | 2/1 3.06 | 30% | 40% | +10% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.51 | 27% | 30% | +3% |
| Heart Of Midlothian Win | 6/5 2.16 | 43% | 30% | -13% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Aberdeen in strong home form (WWL at home, 2.6 avg goals scored overall); Hearts struggling offensively (0.47 avg goals scored, away record WLWL)
H2H: Last Aberdeen home meeting ended 1-0; H2H averages just 2 goals per game — low-scoring trend at this venue
Stakes: Early season, equal footing — no relegation/promotion pressure inflating motivation
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is evenly split (3-2-3) but home meetings tend to be narrow — the last Aberdeen home fixture ended 1-0 and the overall H2H averages just 2 goals per game, pointing to a tight, low-scoring encounter.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.