Falkirk vs ST Mirren
📖 The Preview
Falkirk at home with a 43% win probability edge over St Mirren's 27% makes this one fairly clear on paper. The Bairns have been decent lately, picking up wins in four of their last six, and home advantage counts for something here. St Mirren have actually been on a decent run themselves with four straight wins, so it's not a walkover, but Falkirk's home record and the head-to-head being roughly level slightly favours the hosts to nick this one tight, low-scoring, and late.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk Win | 1/1 2.01 | 46% | 43% | -3% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.53 | 27% | 30% | +3% |
| ST Mirren Win | 5/2 3.51 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Falkirk WDWLWW with strong home record and low goals conceded (0.56 avg); ST Mirren LWWWW but away form faces a stingy home defence
H2H: Balanced over 8 meetings (3-2-3) but Falkirk won 2-0 at home in Jan 2026; avg 2.5 goals per game
Stakes: Both teams early in season with no pressure — neutral motivation context favours home advantage
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Near-even H2H record with 3 wins each, but Falkirk won 2-0 at home as recently as January 2026, suggesting home advantage is a meaningful factor. Goals tend to be tight (2.5/game avg).
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.