Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ittihad FC Win | 11/8 2.40 | 38% | 32% | -6% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 25% | 26% | +1% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC Win Value | 6/4 2.55 | 37% | 42% | +5% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Al-Ittihad FC mid-table (P5) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Al-Qadisiyah in strong form (WWWW run) with high avg goals (2.64); Al-Ittihad inconsistent (LWWDW at home, only 50% win rate)
H2H: 5 home wins in 8 but recent Jan 2026 away win for Al-Qadisiyah 2-1; avg 2.9 goals/game
Stakes: Al-Ittihad mid-table dead rubber (low motivation); Al-Qadisiyah chasing top spot (normal/elevated motivation)
Betting: BTTS likely given both sides' scoring records and H2H history; Over 2.5 strongly supported by xG (2.23 + 2.8) and H2H averages
⚔️ Head to Head
Al-Ittihad historically dominant at home (5 wins in 8 H2H) but Al-Qadisiyah won the most recent meeting 2-1 away in Jan 2026, signalling a shift in momentum. Meetings consistently produce 3+ goals.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Al-Ittihad have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games and average 1.84 goals per game, while Al-Qadisiyah's leaky away record (conceded in recent away trips) means the home side will find the net. Al-Qadisiyah's clinical attack (2.64 avg goals) ensures they will score too, making BTTS a strong expectation.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The combined xG of 5.03 (2.23 + 2.8), H2H average of 2.9 goals per game, and both teams' recent high-scoring matches all point firmly to over 2.5 goals. A predicted scoreline of 2-3 totals 5 goals, well above the threshold.