Al-Qadisiyah FC Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 5)
Al-Qadisiyah FC dispatched Al-Hazm with clinical efficiency on Saturday, securing a 2-0 victory that reinforced their status as genuine contenders in the Pro League's business end. Javier Quinones broke the deadlock in the 14th minute with an assist from M. Al Juwayr, establishing early dominance that Al-Hazm never threatened to overturn. The visitors offered little resistance throughout, and Abdullah Al Hazazi's 86th-minute finish merely confirmed what had been apparent for most of the afternoon: this was a mismatch in motivation and form.
Our model predicted a 3-0 scoreline with 81 percent confidence in an Al-Qadisiyah victory, and while the result direction proved correct, the exact margin fell short. The underlying factors we'd identified before kickoff—Al-Qadisiyah's formidable home record, Al-Hazm's winless away streak, and the historical trend of high-scoring meetings between these sides—all manifested in a dominant performance. What the model missed was the precision of Al-Qadisiyah's finishing. They controlled possession and territory sufficiently to justify victory, yet converted fewer chances than the pre-match analysis had suggested they would. Al-Hazm's 0.67 expected goals proved optimistic; they simply never mustered the attacking intent to threaten a defensive unit that concedes just 1.28 goals per game at home.
The gap between prediction and reality highlights a familiar reality in football: dominant performances don't always translate to the scoreline anticipated. Al-Qadisiyah got the win that matters; the third goal would have merely been decoration.
Al-Qadisiyah FC secured a 2-1 victory at home, with M. Al Juwayr's first-half strike setting the tone before F. Sakala equalized for Al-Fayha in the 50th minute following an A. Radif assist. Gabriel Carvalho's 90th-minute finish sealed the win and ensured Al-Qadisiyah FC maintained their push toward the top four. The match unfolded largely as anticipated: a competitive affair that saw Al-Qadisiyah's superior form and motivation translate into three points, though the exact scoreline proved different from expectations.
Our model predicted a 1-3 scoreline with a 52% probability favoring Al-Qadisiyah FC, and while the result direction proved correct, the actual 2-1 finish was closer than anticipated. The key factors we'd flagged—Al-Qadisiyah's excellent recent form, Al-Fayha's mid-table inconsistency, and the clear motivation gap between a title-chasing side and one mired in dead-rubber fixtures—all held up. Both teams did find the net, which aligned with our assessment of their scoring patterns, though the total of three goals fell short of the over 2.5 threshold our xG analysis had supported. Al-Qadisiyah's defensive solidity in the closing stages prevented what looked like a more open contest from developing further, ultimately delivering a controlled win that reflects their current trajectory more than any dramatic turn of events.
Al-Qadisiyah FC dismantled Al-Nassr 3-1 at home to inflict a rare defeat on the league leaders and serve as a humbling reminder that form and position offer no guarantee in Saudi football. Abu Al Shamat's 24th-minute opener set the tone, and though Joao Felix leveled for Nassr before the interval, Al-Qadisiyah surged after the break. Al Juwayr restored the home side's lead in the 55th minute, and Quinones sealed it in the 78th to complete a dominant second-half display that left Nassr's nine-game winning streak in tatters.
Our pre-match model predicted a 2-3 scoreline in Nassr's favor, assigning them a 64 percent win probability. That was substantially wrong. The prediction hinged on Nassr's exceptional recent form—nine consecutive wins, 3.69 goals per game—and their position atop the table, which suggested maximum motivation to control the match cleanly. What we underestimated was the pattern embedded in the head-to-head record. Al-Qadisiyah had won three straight meetings with this opponent, including a 2-1 home victory just months earlier, and that home advantage proved decisive again. The early Abu Al Shamat goal forced Nassr to chase, and the visitors never recovered their rhythm despite Joao Felix's response. Al-Qadisiyah's 60 percent home win rate and 2.86 goals-per-game average, flagged pre-match as a genuine threat, proved sufficient to overcome a champion-in-waiting.
The result is a reminder that streaks can end suddenly when a team with proven form at home and recent success in direct competition gets the chance to exploit it. Nassr remain leaders, but this loss carries real weight.
Al-Qadisiyah FC dismantled Al Riyadh with a clinical 4-0 victory that proved far more decisive than our pre-match projection. A. Al Salem broke the deadlock early, capitalizing on Al Riyadh's defensive frailties in the seventh minute with an assist from C. Bonsu Baah. The visitors' dominance only intensified from there, with Al Riyadh offering little resistance throughout. Salem doubled the lead in the 77th minute after Gabriel Carvalho's setup, before J. Quinones added two further goals in quick succession—the 87th minute and again in stoppage time—to seal a commanding performance that left the home side utterly outclassed.
Our model predicted a 1-3 result with Al-Qadisiyah favored at 71 percent, so while we correctly identified the winner and general trajectory, we underestimated the scale of Al Riyadh's collapse. The key factors we'd highlighted—Al-Qadisiyah's significant rest advantage (15 days versus Al Riyadh's five), the visitors' strong away form, and Al Riyadh's chronic defensive fragility—all materialized as predicted. However, the absence of a consolation goal proved decisive. Our Poisson model and both teams-to-score logic had suggested Al Riyadh might find the net given their relegation desperation, yet they never seriously threatened throughout. The gap in squad freshness and overall quality proved simply too pronounced, with Al-Qadisiyah executing a near-perfect away display that rendered the home side's survival stakes entirely irrelevant on the day.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab played out a dramatic 2-2 draw in what became a match defined by momentum shifts and a decisive late dismissal. Bonsu Baah's 16th-minute finish, set up by Retegui, gave the hosts an early advantage, but Al Shabab leveled through Azaizeh's 35th-minute strike before the winger added a second just nine minutes into the second half. The match appeared to be slipping away from Al-Qadisiyah, yet Retegui's 76th-minute equalizer forced a revival. That same minute saw Wesley Hoedt's red card for Al Shabab, turning the final stages into a numerical disadvantage the visitors couldn't overcome despite holding the lead heading into the final quarter.
Our model's pre-match prediction of a 3-1 Al-Qadisiyah victory missed the mark on both the result direction and exact scoreline. The forecast assigned zero draw probability, making the 2-2 outcome a clear miss. While Al-Qadisiyah did show attacking potency through Retegui's involvement in multiple goals, the prediction underestimated Al Shabab's defensive vulnerabilities and failed to anticipate how effectively the visitors would capitalize on their chances through Azaizeh's double. The late red card shaped the final stretch but came after the momentum had already begun to shift back toward the hosts. The draw represents a more balanced outcome than our analysis suggested, reflecting both sides' capacity to create and score rather than the dominant home performance the original forecast implied.