Ayr Utd vs Arbroath
📖 The Preview
Ayr come into this one in seriously good nick, seven wins on the bounce is no fluke, and they've never lost to Arbroath in their last eight meetings. All of that points to a home win, and honestly they're the clear favourites here. But Arbroath aren't completely toothless, they've shown enough in patches this season to nick a goal, and with both sides expected to score but the game staying tight, a 1-1 feels about right. Ayr probably deserve more, but Arbroath will make them work for it.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd Win | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 40% | +3% |
| Draw | 2/1 3.00 | 31% | 34% | +3% |
| Arbroath Win | 7/4 2.80 | 32% | 26% | -6% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ayr Utd in outstanding home form (WWWWW) but Arbroath won their last two away games; Ayr on shorter 3-day rest
H2H: 4 draws in last 8, three of last four meetings ended 1-1 — strong draw pattern
Stakes: Both teams mid-table at the start of the season, no meaningful promotion/relegation pressure yet
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Strongly draw-prone — 4 draws and 4 Ayr wins in last 8, with three of the last four ending 1-1. Arbroath have never won this fixture recently but consistently hold Ayr to draws at home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.