Belgium vs Tunisia
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium Win | 1/3 1.33 | 70% | 39% | -31% |
| Draw Value | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 40% | +21% |
| Tunisia Win Value | 8/1 9.00 | 11% | 21% | +10% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 13 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Belgium (70% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Belgium data sparse but quality ELO-backed; Tunisia averaging 1.64 goals scored but also conceding 1.31 — decent attack, leaky defence
H2H: Limited recent data — no strong trend to override model
Stakes: International friendly, low competitive stakes, but Belgium likely using this as World Cup 2026 preparation — motivated to perform and impress
Betting: BTTS less likely given Belgium's defensive structure and Tunisia struggling away; Under 2.5 lean given both teams' relatively modest xG and friendly context reducing intensity
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no strong historical H2H trend available to significantly influence prediction
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 2-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Total goals of 3 in the projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal line. The engine sees enough attacking output combined between the two sides.