Chapecoense-sc vs Remo
📝 Match Recap
Remo's 3-2 victory over Chapecoense-sc delivered a dramatic finish that defied our pre-match prediction of a 2-1 home win. The match unfolded in two distinct halves, with Chapecoense-sc mounting a compelling fightback before ultimately succumbing to late pressure. Remo's Yago Pikachu struck first in the 16th minute, assisted by Vitor Bueno, but Chapecoense-sc responded through Neto Pessoa's 24th-minute equalizer. The home side completed a turnaround five minutes after the interval when Rafael Carvalheira converted from Pessoa's assist, seemingly positioning them for the victory our model had favored. However, Remo equalized through Jaja in the 51st minute, and Bruno Leonardo's 87th-minute own goal handed Remo their winner in circumstances that no statistical projection can fully anticipate.
Our prediction called the result direction wrong, backing Chapecoense-sc with 47 percent win probability. The 2-1 scoreline we projected was close in goal count—the match contained four goals instead of three—but the final tally favored the visiting side. Several factors contributed to this miss. While both teams' recent form and xG data supported our projection of a tight, low-scoring encounter, the own goal proved decisive in a way that pre-match analysis cannot reliably forecast. Additionally, Remo's capacity to absorb Chapecoense-sc's momentum after falling behind and push forward in the final stages suggested greater tactical resilience than our model had weighted. The both-teams-to-score element we flagged as probable proved prescient, but the specific distribution of goals—and Remo's ability to convert pressure into a winner—represented the deviation from our underlying expectation.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc Win Value | 11/8 2.40 | 39% | 47% | +8% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.23 | 29% | 17% | -12% |
| Remo Win | 15/8 2.92 | 32% | 36% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Chapecoense-sc in relegation danger (P20/20)
- 🆘 Remo in relegation danger (P19/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Chapecoense avg 1.56 xG at home, recent 2-0 and 2-1 wins; Remo avg 1.73 goals scored overall but key attackers injured
H2H: Last 2 meetings both ended 1-1, suggesting tight competitive games but goals from both sides
Stakes: Both clubs fighting relegation — maximum intensity, home side marginally more desperate at rock bottom (P20)
Betting: BTTS supported by both sides' recent scoring records and H2H history; Over 2.5 marginal but achievable given relegation desperation and xG projections combining to ~2.88
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 2 meetings both finished 1-1, indicating evenly matched encounters with both teams finding the net — a 2-1 scoreline is the natural step up given home pressure and Chapecoense's survival imperative.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams have scored in their recent matches and in both H2H meetings (each ending 1-1). Remo, despite injuries, still carry a threat with a 1.73 goals-per-game average, and Chapecoense's home attacking output supports them finding the net — both sides are expected to score.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The combined xG of 2.88, both teams' desperation in a relegation six-pointer, and the attacking intent forced by must-win pressure all point toward at least 3 goals being scored, supporting the over 2.5 outcome.