Chapecoense-sc Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 4)
Remo's 3-2 victory over Chapecoense-sc delivered a dramatic finish that defied our pre-match prediction of a 2-1 home win. The match unfolded in two distinct halves, with Chapecoense-sc mounting a compelling fightback before ultimately succumbing to late pressure. Remo's Yago Pikachu struck first in the 16th minute, assisted by Vitor Bueno, but Chapecoense-sc responded through Neto Pessoa's 24th-minute equalizer. The home side completed a turnaround five minutes after the interval when Rafael Carvalheira converted from Pessoa's assist, seemingly positioning them for the victory our model had favored. However, Remo equalized through Jaja in the 51st minute, and Bruno Leonardo's 87th-minute own goal handed Remo their winner in circumstances that no statistical projection can fully anticipate.
Our prediction called the result direction wrong, backing Chapecoense-sc with 47 percent win probability. The 2-1 scoreline we projected was close in goal count—the match contained four goals instead of three—but the final tally favored the visiting side. Several factors contributed to this miss. While both teams' recent form and xG data supported our projection of a tight, low-scoring encounter, the own goal proved decisive in a way that pre-match analysis cannot reliably forecast. Additionally, Remo's capacity to absorb Chapecoense-sc's momentum after falling behind and push forward in the final stages suggested greater tactical resilience than our model had weighted. The both-teams-to-score element we flagged as probable proved prescient, but the specific distribution of goals—and Remo's ability to convert pressure into a winner—represented the deviation from our underlying expectation.
Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc finished level at 1-1 in a match that departed significantly from our pre-match expectations. Eduardo's 71st-minute finish gave the home side what appeared to be a decisive advantage, with Willian Machado providing the assist. However, that lead lasted only ten minutes before Joao Victor's own goal in the 81st minute handed Chapecoense-sc an unlikely equalizer, denying Mirassol what would have been a valuable three points.
Our model predicted a 2-0 Mirassol victory with absolute confidence in a home win, but this result revealed meaningful gaps in the analysis. We correctly identified Mirassol's home advantage and their capacity to build attacking pressure, yet failed to anticipate how defensive vulnerability could undermine that advantage. While a clean sheet at home represents a reasonable expectation for a well-organized Serie A side, the match showed that defensive discipline alone doesn't guarantee victory when chances remain limited. The own goal was an unpredictable element that disrupted what could have been a straightforward home win, but such individual errors reflect the match-to-match variance that statistical models struggle to capture.
The prediction's failure underscores the importance of accounting for Chapecoense-sc's capacity to create problems for defenders despite their away-day struggles. A draw, while statistically less likely than a comfortable home victory, proved more resilient than our assessment suggested. For future matchdays, this serves as a useful reminder that home advantage and attacking structure must be weighed alongside defensive execution and the unpredictability of individual moments.
Fluminense secured a 2-1 victory over relegation-battling Chapecoense-sc, though the margin proved tighter than expected. The hosts broke the deadlock through João Savarino's penalty conversion in the 56th minute, establishing control that looked destined to deliver the comfortable win our model had anticipated. Chapecoense mounted an unlikely response when Enio finished from close range in the 78th, sparked by Marcinho's assist, briefly threatening an upset. Fluminense reasserted dominance through John Kennedy's 86th-minute goal, set up by Alisson, before late drama saw Chapecoense reduced to ten men when Eduardo Doma received a red card deep into stoppage time.
The prediction of a 3-0 scoreline proved directionally correct—Fluminense's dominance was never in doubt—but the model underestimated Chapecoense's ability to breach a compromised defense. Our flagged factors largely held: Fluminense's superior home form and motivation as title contenders showed in their control, while Chapecoense's poor away record and limited attacking threat were evident in their xG profile. However, the visitors did what the pre-match form suggested they shouldn't: they scored. The 2-1 finish sits between our AI projection of 3-0 and the Poisson model's 3-1, suggesting the underlying dominance was accurately captured even if the precise scoreline wasn't. Fluminense's march toward the top two continues, while Chapecoense's struggles persist despite a consolation that came too late to change the outcome.
Botafogo came to Santa Catarina and dismantled Chapecoense-sc in an utterly one-sided affair, winning 4-1 through a clinical performance that saw them establish complete control by halftime. Edenilson opened the scoring in the 10th minute after an assist from Alex Telles, then Matheus Martins made it 2-0 just four minutes later with Danilo providing the service. Edenilson doubled his tally in the 20th minute, again set up by Vitinho, effectively deciding the contest before the first half concluded. Chapecoense-sc pulled one back through Marcinho's 45th-minute effort, which came via a Yoane Bolasie assist, but Botafogo's dominance was never genuinely threatened. Matheus Martins sealed the rout with a second goal in the 80th minute, courtesy of a J. Correa assist, confirming a convincing away victory.
Our model's prediction of a 1-1 draw proved substantially wide of the mark. The prediction failed to anticipate Botafogo's attacking potency and the degree to which they would control the match from start to finish. While we assigned the draw significant probability, the actual flow of play suggested Botafogo's superiority was evident and decisive. Chapecoense-sc offered little resistance in the opening phases, allowing their visitors to establish an early advantage that proved insurmountable. The gap between prediction and outcome reflects a significant shortfall in our ability to capture the underlying quality differential between these sides on the day.
🌱 Building History
We've only predicted 4 matches for Chapecoense-sc so far. As more fixtures are scheduled and predicted, accuracy stats and patterns will become more reliable.