Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
📖 The Preview
Chicago Fire look well set to take this one at home, with a 3-1 win the expected outcome. Their recent form has picked up nicely and the 65% win probability reflects that. Charlotte have been patchy, losing three of their last four, and the absence of Saint-Maximin really hurts their attacking threat. The head-to-head actually favours Charlotte historically, which keeps this from being a walkover, hence the consolation goal, but Chicago's home advantage and current momentum should see them run out comfortable winners.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire Win | 8/15 1.52 | 61% | 65% | +4% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.55 | 21% | 17% | -4% |
| Charlotte Win | 4/1 5.18 | 18% | 18% | ±0% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Chicago Fire home form trending upward (W in last home match, 3-2 vs Charlotte recently); Charlotte away form weak (WLL). Chicago avg 2.17 scored, Charlotte avg 1.74 scored but only 1.36 conceded.
H2H: 4.1 avg goals per meeting, away-dominant historically but last meeting went to Chicago Fire 3-2.
Stakes: Mid-table MLS positioning with playoff implications — both sides motivated but neither in crisis.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
High-scoring fixture historically (4.1 goals/game); Charlotte has dominated the series overall (5 wins vs 3) but Chicago won the last home meeting 3-2 and H2H shows matches consistently produce 4+ goals.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.