Colorado Rapids vs Austin
📖 The Preview
Both sides are deep in relegation trouble, so this is a nervy one, but Colorado look set to edge it comfortably at home. Austin are missing Bell and Desler through injury, which doesn't help a team already struggling for consistency, and their recent form of just two wins in their last ten says plenty. Colorado's home advantage and a 64% win probability suggests they're just the stronger outfit on the day, keeping a clean sheet while putting three past a visiting side with not a lot to play for except survival.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids Win Value | 8/11 1.73 | 54% | 64% | +10% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.99 | 24% | 15% | -9% |
| Austin Win | 10/3 4.20 | 22% | 21% | -1% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Colorado Rapids in relegation danger (P13/15)
- 🆘 Austin in relegation danger (P14/15)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Colorado 0.78 scored/0.86 conceded home; Austin 1.26 scored/2.05 conceded with LLLD away
H2H: Neutral dominance, avg 2.5 goals/game, recent meetings tight and low-scoring
Stakes: Both in relegation battle — Colorado at home has stronger incentive to push; Austin away have struggled to compete
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Evenly split over 8 meetings (3-2-3), but recent encounters lean toward low-scoring outcomes — Colorado won 1-0 twice and Austin showed they can defend; last meeting was Colorado 0-2 Austin, but Austin's away form has collapsed since.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.