Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor

Fatih Karagümrük came from behind to upset Alanyaspor 2-1, overturning an early deficit through a second-half turnaround anchored by Stefan Larsson's clinical finishing. Alanyaspor struck first when Mohamed Elia converted in the 32nd minute off Florent Hadergjonaj's assist, putting the visitors on course for what appeared a comfortable away win. Karagümrük equalized just after the interval when Larsson finished from Bekir Kalayci's setup in the 48th minute, before the Swedish striker sealed the comeback from the penalty spot in the 73rd minute to secure an unlikely three points.

Our pre-match model predicted a 1-2 scoreline in Alanyaspor's favor, assigning them a 38% win probability against Karagümrük's 31%. The prediction proved incorrect on both the result direction and exact score. The model's reasoning—that Karagümrük's relegation had left them bereft of motivation while Alanyaspor's mid-table positioning and superior recent form made them the likely victors—failed to account for how the match actually unfolded. While we correctly identified Alanyaspor as the more prolific attacking force on recent form and flagged their dominance in head-to-head fixtures, Karagümrük's second-half response and Larsson's decisive interventions were underestimated. The prediction's lean toward lower-scoring outcomes proved partially vindicated in terms of the total goal count, though not in terms of which team would prevail.