Alanyaspor Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 7)
Fatih Karagümrük came from behind to upset Alanyaspor 2-1, overturning an early deficit through a second-half turnaround anchored by Stefan Larsson's clinical finishing. Alanyaspor struck first when Mohamed Elia converted in the 32nd minute off Florent Hadergjonaj's assist, putting the visitors on course for what appeared a comfortable away win. Karagümrük equalized just after the interval when Larsson finished from Bekir Kalayci's setup in the 48th minute, before the Swedish striker sealed the comeback from the penalty spot in the 73rd minute to secure an unlikely three points.
Our pre-match model predicted a 1-2 scoreline in Alanyaspor's favor, assigning them a 38% win probability against Karagümrük's 31%. The prediction proved incorrect on both the result direction and exact score. The model's reasoning—that Karagümrük's relegation had left them bereft of motivation while Alanyaspor's mid-table positioning and superior recent form made them the likely victors—failed to account for how the match actually unfolded. While we correctly identified Alanyaspor as the more prolific attacking force on recent form and flagged their dominance in head-to-head fixtures, Karagümrük's second-half response and Larsson's decisive interventions were underestimated. The prediction's lean toward lower-scoring outcomes proved partially vindicated in terms of the total goal count, though not in terms of which team would prevail.
Alanyaspor dominated Kayserispor 3-1 at home in a match that unfolded with clinical efficiency after an entertaining opening quarter hour. Mert Elia's seventh-minute opener set the tone, but Kayserispor responded through Lukas Benes's well-constructed 13th-minute finish, suggesting the low-scoring pattern we'd anticipated might hold. It didn't. Alanyaspor seized control thereafter, with Ferhan Hadergjonaj converting a penalty on 40 minutes before wrapping up the contest with Ismail Kaya's 61st-minute goal—Hadergjonaj providing the assist. The hosts managed three goals across ninety minutes; Kayserispor managed only one genuine chance conversion, underlining their structural vulnerabilities.
Our model predicted a 1-1 draw with Alanyaspor favoured at 60% to win, but we got the direction wrong and missed the magnitude entirely. The miss stings because our underlying reasoning held water: we'd flagged Kayserispor's leaky defence (recent records of 0-3, 0-4, 0-2) and their zero away goals in the preceding three fixtures. We'd also identified Alanyaspor's home potency, averaging 2.04 expected goals, and their fitness advantage given Kayserispor's injury crisis. What we underweighted was how comprehensively those advantages would materialise. Our AI model had suggested 2-0, closer to the mark, while our Poisson projection landed on 2-1. The 3-1 scoreline reflects what the data pointed toward—Alanyaspor's superiority—but expressed itself more forcefully than the median projection allowed. A reminder that even when the analytical framework is sound, match outcomes sit on distributions with outlying possibilities.
Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor played out a goalless stalemate on Sunday, a result that defied our pre-match prediction of a 1-1 draw but aligned with the broader outcome we'd flagged: a draw. Both teams failed to break through in a match that reflected the attacking limitations both sides have shown in recent weeks. Antalyaspor, languishing in the relegation zone, created few clear opportunities despite the added urgency that comes with their precarious league position. Alanyaspor, sitting comfortably mid-table, offered little going forward and continued a pattern of struggle away from home that has defined their recent away fixtures. The rain-affected pitch conditions we'd noted in our pre-match analysis appeared to play a role in limiting the quality of attacking play, though both teams' well-documented scoring problems were the real story here.
Our model predicted 1-1 with a 30% probability assigned to the draw outcome. While we correctly identified that a draw was likely—and indeed that proved to be the case—we overestimated both teams' ability to find the back of the net. The historical H2H data pointing toward both teams scoring held less weight than the current form metrics that showed Antalyaspor averaging just 0.87 goals per game and Alanyaspor struggling for consistency. The 0-0 result was the logical endpoint of two sides operating under significant constraints: one fighting for survival but lacking attacking potency, the other unmotivated and vulnerable defensively yet still organized enough to secure a point.
This was a match decided less by drama than by attrition. Neither team forced the issue decisively, and neither goalkeeper was asked to make a save of consequence. It reinforced what the underlying data had suggested: when two teams are this limited going forward, 0-0 becomes as plausible an outcome as any low-scoring draw.
Samsunspor staged a dramatic second-half collapse of Alanyaspor's home advantage, storming to a 3-2 victory through goals from E. Tavsan and O. Ntcham in the 37th and 39th minutes, before Marius sealed the win deep into stoppage time. Alanyaspor's late rally, courtesy of G. Yalcin and M. Elia, proved too little and came far too late to salvage anything from the contest. The match unfolded almost exactly as our pre-match analysis had flagged regarding volatility: both teams entered with limited motivation as mid-table sides, yet the historical pattern of high-scoring encounters between these sides reasserted itself with five goals across ninety minutes.
Our model predicted a 2-1 Alanyaspor win with 44% confidence in their victory, and that call was decisively wrong. The prediction leaned on the xG model's home-field advantage reading (2.08 vs 1.31) and Alanyaspor's slight edge in the underlying metrics, but failed to account for what the match ultimately revealed: that Samsunspor's away-form strength (50% win rate) would prove more resilient than their injury troubles suggested. The H2H data we'd highlighted—showing 3.3 goals per game and a tendency toward both sides scoring—held true for the fourth consecutive meeting in this fixture, and the "Both Teams to Score" angle proved sound. Where we miscalculated was in assuming Alanyaspor's home ground and xG advantage would translate into a narrow victory rather than a Samsunspor away upset. The late Alanyaspor goals underscored their quality on the ball, but by then Marius had already secured three points for the visitors through clinical execution in the final moments.
Kasımpaşa secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Alanyaspor in what proved to be a tightly contested encounter at the weekend. İlhan Kahveci's 60th-minute goal ultimately decided the contest, arriving midway through the second half to settle a match that offered few clear-cut opportunities for either side. The winning strike came as the decisive moment in a game where both teams appeared evenly matched through much of the ninety minutes.
Our pre-match model predicted a 2-1 scoreline in Kasımpaşa's favor, correctly calling the result direction but miscalculating where the goals would land. The prediction anticipated a more open, attacking affair than what actually unfolded on the pitch. While we accurately identified Kasımpaşa as the likely winner, the match proved considerably tighter than our forecast suggested—a single Kahveci goal proved sufficient where we'd projected a higher-scoring outcome.
This outcome reflects a familiar pattern in football analysis: identifying the correct match winner remains the most reliable element of predictive modeling, while exact scoreline calls demand a more precise calibration of team form, tactical setup, and individual finishing. Kasımpaşa's capacity to win through controlled, economical play suggests solidity in their approach, even if the limited number of goals in either direction hints at defensive discipline or missed opportunities that warrant closer examination heading into their next fixture.
Alanyaspor emerged from a tight contest with Trabzonspor with a 1-1 draw, salvaging a point through Gökhan Yalcin's 67th-minute penalty after falling behind to Ozan Tufan's 58th-minute opener. The match unfolded as a competitive affair between two sides unwilling to surrender ground, with the penalty providing Alanyaspor a lifeline when the contest appeared to be slipping away.
Our model's pre-match prediction of a 1-2 Trabzonspor victory missed the mark entirely. The forecast assigned zero probability to both the draw and Alanyaspor winning or drawing, instead backing a straightforward away victory. What the model failed to account for was Alanyaspor's capacity to respond after going behind. While Trabzonspor did take the lead through Tufan's clinical finish, the home side proved resilient enough to force an equalizer rather than collapse as our prediction implied. The introduction of a set-piece opportunity—specifically the penalty that Yalcin converted—represented the kind of match momentum swing that models can struggle to anticipate in real time.
This result underscores a recurring challenge in match prediction: the binary nature of penalty decisions and disciplinary incidents that can fundamentally alter a contest's trajectory. Trabzonspor's performance was largely what we expected from the visiting side, but the pathway to their advantage proved narrower than projected. The draw leaves both teams with something to build on, though it represents a departure from the clear away win our prediction had envisioned.
Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor played out the deadlock that our pre-match analysis had identified as the likely outcome, with goals from I. Kaya in the 42nd minute and K. Kozlowski in the 63rd minute defining a balanced encounter. Kaya's opener, assisted by N. Lima, gave Alanyaspor the advantage at the interval, but Gaziantep equalized through Kozlowski's second-half effort, set up by K. Rodrigues, to secure the draw. The sequence of play reflected exactly what we'd anticipated: two mid-table sides trading chances without either establishing decisive control, resulting in a single goal apiece.
Our model's prediction of a 1-1 scoreline proved accurate, validating the framework we'd applied to this fixture. The assessment that Gaziantep would lack overwhelming offensive dominance despite home advantage, combined with recognition of Alanyaspor's defensive competence on the road, correctly anticipated how this match would unfold. Both teams showed enough attacking intent to create openings—evidenced by the goals themselves—but not enough sustained pressure to break through and establish a winning margin.
The fixture underscored a recurring pattern in Turkish football's mid-tier tier contests: when competitive levels are genuinely comparable and neither side possesses a clear technical edge, draws emerge not as flukes but as statistically natural outcomes. Gaziantep's modest home advantage proved insufficient to push them toward three points, while Alanyaspor's ability to remain threatening without dominance meant they departed with a respectable result. The 1-1 finish represented the match's truest reflection of the forces at play.