France vs Senegal

France defeated Senegal 3-1 in their World Cup group-stage opener, with the match decided in a dramatic closing stretch. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring in the 66th minute with an assist from Mathis Olise, and France extended their lead through Aurélien Rabiot's pass to Beppo Barcola in the 82nd minute. Senegal pulled one back late when Ismaïla Mbaye converted in the 90th minute, but Mbappé sealed the result in the 90th minute to secure France's three-point start.

Our pre-match prediction of a 2-1 France win aligned with the result direction—France were favoured at 71% probability—but underestimated the eventual goal tally. The model had weighted a more controlled French performance given Senegal's limited away attacking output (flagged xG of 0.85) and France's defensive solidity. The match unfolded partly in line with those expectations; France did dominate proceedings and Senegal's attacking threat remained modest until the final moments. However, the late goals—including both of Mbappé's finishes arriving in added time—pushed the scoreline beyond the projected 2-1 margin, suggesting France's attacking efficiency in the closing stages exceeded the pre-match models.

The gap between prediction and outcome reflects the inherent uncertainty of tournament football, particularly early in competition when team sharpness and group momentum remain unsettled. France's quality advantage materialised, but the timing and volume of their goals represented one plausible upper bound within the range of expected outcomes.