Senegal Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 8)
Belgium and Senegal served up a dramatic finish to a match that swung wildly in both directions. Senegal came out swinging and took control early, with H. Diarra putting them ahead in the 25th minute. They doubled their advantage after the break when I. Sarr made it 2-0 in the 51st minute, assisted by M. Niakhate, and looked well on course to pull off a shock result. But Belgium clawed their way back into it. R. Lukaku scored in the 86th minute with help from T. Meunier to set up a tense finale, and Y. Tielemans levelled things in the 89th to force extra time. Tielemans then sealed it from the penalty spot deep into the additional period, giving Belgium a 3-2 win.
Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline with Belgium favoured at 43% to win, though a draw sat at 30% — a fair margin of plausible outcomes rather than a confident call. The actual result came in at 3-2 to Belgium, so we got the direction right but missed the exact score. Before kickoff, the model leaned on Belgium's solid home form and defensive record against Senegal's patchy away results, but hadn't fully accounted for how open this knockout tie would turn out. What unfolded was a far more chaotic and goal-heavy affair than the baseline lean suggested, with both sides finding the net freely and the match decided only by a late penalty in extra time.
Senegal put on a commanding display to dismantle Iraq 5-0, with the match effectively settled early when Iraq's R. Sulaka was sent off in the 13th minute. From there, it was one-way traffic. H. Diarra opened the scoring in the fourth minute with A. Seck's assist, and the numerical advantage allowed Senegal to dominate the remainder. I. Sarr made it 2-0 in the 56th minute, then turned provider for P. Gueye's strike three minutes later. Gueye doubled his tally in the 71st minute after I. Ndiaye's cross, before Ndiaye rounded things off with the fifth in the 82nd minute, set up by Gueye. It was a rout.
Our model had called a Senegal win with 71% confidence and predicted a 3-0 scoreline—the right result, but Senegal's ruthlessness in the second half proved greater than anticipated. The early red card shifted the match's texture significantly, handing Senegal far more space to operate than the pre-match setup suggested they'd have. Our projection at the 78-minute mark flagged a clean sheet and comfortable control, which held true, though the finishing in the closing stages was sharper than the model had weighted.
The gap between a 3-0 prediction and a 5-0 reality reflects how red cards can amplify a favourite's advantage beyond typical probabilities. Senegal's dominance was clear from kickoff, but the numerical imbalance turned dominance into demolition. A correct result call, an underestimated margin, and a lesson in how tournaments can pivot on a single disciplinary moment.
Norway defeated Senegal 3–2 in a World Cup group-stage match that swung decisively in the first half before a late Senegalese rally. Pedersen opened the scoring for Norway in the 43rd minute, then Haaland doubled the lead just after the interval with an assist from Odegaard. Senegal pulled one back through Sarr in the 53rd minute, assisted by Mane, but Haaland restored Norway's two-goal margin four minutes later with a second goal, this time set up by Berg. Sarr's second goal, assisted by Jackson, came deep into injury time at 90+3, but it proved too late to alter the outcome.
Before kickoff, our model leaned toward a Norway win with 56% probability, anchored on the home side's strong domestic form and goal-scoring average of 2.98 per match, offset by Senegal's weak away record and modest 1.29 goals-per-game output overall. The prediction of 2–1 captured that expected shape: a narrow Norway advantage with both teams contributing in attack. The actual 3–2 scoreline involved one additional goal compared to our forecast, and while the result direction aligned with our primary lean, the match played out with greater intensity at both ends than the model had weighted. Senegal's away defensive frailty was evident in the first half, yet they demonstrated enough second-half threat to register two goals—a level of attacking potency that stood above their pre-match averages and suggested heightened urgency in a tournament context where three points were essential.
France defeated Senegal 3-1 in their World Cup group-stage opener, with the match decided in a dramatic closing stretch. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring in the 66th minute with an assist from Mathis Olise, and France extended their lead through Aurélien Rabiot's pass to Beppo Barcola in the 82nd minute. Senegal pulled one back late when Ismaïla Mbaye converted in the 90th minute, but Mbappé sealed the result in the 90th minute to secure France's three-point start.
Our pre-match prediction of a 2-1 France win aligned with the result direction—France were favoured at 71% probability—but underestimated the eventual goal tally. The model had weighted a more controlled French performance given Senegal's limited away attacking output (flagged xG of 0.85) and France's defensive solidity. The match unfolded partly in line with those expectations; France did dominate proceedings and Senegal's attacking threat remained modest until the final moments. However, the late goals—including both of Mbappé's finishes arriving in added time—pushed the scoreline beyond the projected 2-1 margin, suggesting France's attacking efficiency in the closing stages exceeded the pre-match models.
The gap between prediction and outcome reflects the inherent uncertainty of tournament football, particularly early in competition when team sharpness and group momentum remain unsettled. France's quality advantage materialised, but the timing and volume of their goals represented one plausible upper bound within the range of expected outcomes.