Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
📖 The Preview
This is a relegation six-pointer and Fredrikstad have the edge at home, where the head-to-head record strongly favours them. Both sides are in patchy form, but with three players missing through injury for Fredrikstad, including Kvile, Leach and Sorlokk, they'll need to grind this out rather than win it prettily. Sandefjord aren't without their own problems either, losing Loftesnes-Bjune to a thigh injury. Expect a tight, nervy affair where one goal settles it, and home advantage plus that h2h record tips it Fredrikstad's way.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad Win Value | 5/4 2.30 | 40% | 49% | +9% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.35 | 28% | 28% | ±0% |
| Sandefjord Win | 2/1 3.00 | 32% | 23% | -9% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Fredrikstad in relegation danger (P12, only 2 pt cushion)
- 🆘 Sandefjord in relegation danger (P11, only 3 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Fredrikstad poor overall (LLLLDD) but improved at home (LDDWW); Sandefjord winless in last 4 away (LLLL) and averaging only 1.08 goals scored
H2H: Fredrikstad dominant in H2H (4W-3D-1L), recent meetings tight and low-scoring, last five games produced 1-1, 0-0, 3-1, 2-2, 0-1
Stakes: Both clubs in relegation danger — Fredrikstad just 2 pts clear, Sandefjord 3 pts clear; home side has greater urgency with inferior cushion
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Fredrikstad hold a clear H2H edge (4 wins vs 1 for Sandefjord in last 8), with three draws; games tend to be tight and low-scoring, averaging just 2.1 goals — recent clashes include a 1-1, 0-0, and 3-1, suggesting competitive but not high-scoring encounters.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.