Haiti vs Peru
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti Win | 7/4 2.77 | 33% | 31% | -2% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.20 | 29% | 39% | +10% |
| Peru Win | 6/4 2.50 | 38% | 30% | -8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Haiti LDLW with avg 1.79 scored but 2.74 conceded; Peru WLDL with avg 0.85 scored and 0.75 conceded — both inconsistent
H2H: Limited historical data between these sides
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive stakes for either team — neither side has strong motivation to chase a win aggressively, favouring a draw outcome
Betting: BTTS supported by Haiti's ability to score (1.79 avg) and Peru's recent goal in most outings; Under 2.5 supported by Peru's defensive solidity (0.75 conceded avg) and the low-pressure friendly context suppressing attacking intensity
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to draw meaningful trends between Haiti and Peru
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Haiti average nearly 1.8 goals per game and have scored in three of their last four matches, giving them a realistic chance of finding the net at home. Peru, despite being defensively solid on average, have scored in each of their last four games and showed attacking intent even in defeats, supporting the case for both teams to get on the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Peru's defensive average of 0.75 goals conceded per game keeps a lid on Haiti's attack, and with neither side under competitive pressure in a friendly, the game is unlikely to open up beyond two goals. The Poisson model's xG of just 0.79 and 0.75 for each side strongly supports the total staying under 2.5 goals.