Heracles vs Groningen
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Win | 7/2 4.70 | 20% | 14% | -6% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.50 | 21% | 25% | +4% |
| Groningen Win | 4/7 1.57 | 59% | 61% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 💀 Heracles already relegated (P18) — nothing to play for
- 😴 Groningen mid-table (P9) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Heracles on a dire run (LLLLLDLDLL), scoring barely once every four home games; Groningen mid-table but clearly the better side with 40% win rate
H2H: Groningen have won the last four meetings, including two high-scoring away victories (4-0, 4-1) — heavy dominance in recent clashes
Stakes: Heracles relegated (P18, zero motivation); Groningen mid-table (P9, low motivation but professional pride and recent form carry them
Betting: Bookmakers back Groningen at 63% — aligned with Poisson xG and H2H trend. BTTS unlikely given Heracles' inability to score in recent home games. Under 2.5 is plausible but Groningen's firepower tips toward 2 goals.
⚔️ Head to Head
Groningen have been dominant in the most recent H2H meetings, winning the last two fixtures 4-0 and 4-1 against Heracles. Overall the last 8 meetings are fairly balanced historically but recent momentum is firmly with Groningen.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Heracles are unlikely to score given their alarming home record (0.25 goals/game average in recent matches), multiple key absences including Kulenovic (red card suspension) and Reine-Adelaide (inactive), and a complete lack of competitive motivation as a relegated side. Groningen should score but Heracles are expected to be shut out.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
With only 2 total goals predicted (0-2), this falls under 2.5 goals. Both teams have low motivation for a high-intensity game, Heracles have virtually no attacking output, and the referee profile (R. Martens) tends toward tighter, more disrupted games. The xG for Heracles is just 0.7, making a third goal unlikely.