Iran vs Gambia
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Win Value | 8/15 1.55 | 60% | 70% | +10% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.84 | 24% | 23% | -1% |
| Gambia Win | 5/1 6.00 | 16% | 7% | -9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Iran averaging 1.31 goals scored with solid defensive shape (0.74 conceded); Gambia averaging 1.56 scored but 1.34 conceded — leaky defensively
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: International friendly with both sides well-rested after 191 days off — Iran motivated to impress on home soil, Gambia treating this as preparatory
Betting: BTTS less likely given Iran's defensive solidity and Gambia's away scoring limitations; Under 2.5 plausible but xG lean tips toward 2 Iran goals keeping it just at threshold
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no significant H2H trend to draw from; defaulting to current form and statistical model
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Gambia are unlikely to score given Iran's strong defensive record (0.74 goals conceded per game) and the fact that Gambia's away form, while solid in terms of results (DDWWDD), has often been low-scoring. Iran's defensive organisation at home makes a clean sheet a realistic outcome, with Gambia's attack not generating enough threat to breach them.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals predicted at 2, pointing toward under 2.5. Iran's defensive solidity and Gambia's limited attacking output away from home suggest this stays a tight, controlled game. While Iran's xG is elevated at 2.65, their recent results include multiple low-scoring outcomes (0-0, 0-0, 2-0), and friendlies often produce conservative, structured play — making under 2.5 the more reliable call.