Iran vs New Zealand

Iran and New Zealand played out a thoroughly even contest in a 2-2 draw that saw both sides exchange goals across the ninety minutes. New Zealand struck first through Just in the seventh minute, assisted by Wood, before Iran levelled through Rezaeian in the 32nd minute. The pattern repeated in the second half: Just added his second, again from a Wood assist, in the 54th minute to restore New Zealand's lead, only for Iran to equalise once more when Mohebi scored in the 64th minute with Rezaeian providing the assist. The match remained deadlocked thereafter, with neither side able to break the stalemate despite having opportunities in the closing stages.

Our model predicted a 3-2 scoreline with Iran favoured at 67% to win, reflecting a view that Iran would edge a tight fixture. The actual draw carried a pre-match probability of just 20% in our forecast—a plausible outcome within the model's distribution, but clearly not the primary lean. The prediction was built on the expectation of higher-intensity attacking play and fewer defensive errors than ultimately materialised. Instead, the match developed into a more balanced affair, with both teams defending resolutely enough in the final stages to deny either a winner. The xG projections flagged late in the match suggested neither side had created the clear-cut chances needed to force a decisive goal, an observation borne out by the 2-2 final scoreline.