New York City FC vs Chicago Fire
📖 The Preview
Chicago Fire come into this one as slight favourites despite New York City's dominant head-to-head record, and the numbers back a 1-2 away win. NYCFC are carrying real doubts in midfield and defence, with Baiera, Moralez, Martinez, O'Neill, O'Toole and Parks all carrying knocks, and that kind of disruption to your spine matters. The Fire have won three of their last four on the road and look sharp enough to exploit a patchwork home side. Both teams score, it stays close, but Chicago edge it.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC Win | 5/4 2.30 | 41% | 38% | -3% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 26% | 22% | -4% |
| Chicago Fire Win Value | 7/4 2.81 | 33% | 40% | +7% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: NYCFC inconsistent (40% win rate, avg 1.48 scored), Fire in good away form (LWWDW, 50% win rate, avg 2.41 scored)
H2H: NYCFC dominant historically (5W-3D-0L), avg 2.3 goals/game, but Fire's current form is a strong counter
Stakes: Both mid-table MLS sides with no extreme pressure; Fire slightly more motivated with better momentum
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
NYCFC have dominated this fixture with 5 wins and 3 draws in last 8 meetings, never losing to Chicago Fire. However, Fire's strong away form (4 wins in last 5 away) and NYCFC's injury crisis make this closer than H2H suggests.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.