Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC
📖 The Preview
Nashville come into this one in seriously good nick - four straight wins before a minor wobble, and they're massive favourites at 63% to take all three points. Orlando aren't a pushover, the head-to-head is pretty even and they've had decent patches recently, but doubts around Ojeda and Miller could hurt them at both ends. Nashville look sharp enough to nick it on the road, and with both teams expected to score and goals likely, a 1-2 away win makes a lot of sense here.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC Win | 9/4 3.20 | 30% | 20% | -10% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.73 | 25% | 17% | -8% |
| Nashville SC Win Value | 11/10 2.10 | 45% | 63% | +18% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Nashville on strong run (W4 in last 5), Orlando inconsistent at home averaging 3.2 scored but 2.51 conceded
H2H: High-scoring history (4.4 goals/game avg), Nashville won last meeting 5-0, but series evenly split 3-3-1
Stakes: Both teams mid-table at equal ELO 1500, no major promotion/relegation pressure reducing urgency
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
High-scoring series averaging 4.4 goals per meeting with Nashville winning the most recent encounter 5-0 in March 2026; series perfectly balanced overall but Nashville hold momentum in 2025-26 fixtures
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.