New Zealand vs Belgium

Belgium swept past New Zealand with a commanding 5-1 victory in a one-sided World Cup encounter. Trossard opened the scoring in the 28th minute and doubled his tally just after the break, assisted by Vanaken, before De Bruyne added a third in the 66th. New Zealand grabbed a consolation through Just in the 84th minute, but Belgium wrapped it up with two late finishes—Lukaku converting in the 86th with help from Raskin, then Saelemaekers sealing it in stoppage time from Lukaku's assist.

Our model called the direction correctly but badly misjudged the scale. We'd pegged Belgium as the likely winners at 72 percent probability and predicted a tight 0-1 scoreline, banking heavily on a low-scoring encounter. What actually unfolded was a proper rout. The early stages looked like they might track our thinking—level at 22 minutes with limited clear-cut chances—but Belgium's quality in the final third proved far sharper than the pre-match projections suggested. By halftime, they were already two up, and New Zealand couldn't close the gap despite briefly getting on the board late on.

The miss here wasn't about calling the winner wrong; it was about sizing the margin. Our model weighted a tight game, and that simply didn't materialize. Belgium's attacking depth and composure in front of goal punished New Zealand in ways the live xG readings didn't anticipate. It's a reminder that scoreline predictions are inherently tricky—nailing the outcome is one thing, but the final tally often tells a different story than the underlying numbers suggest going in.