Partick vs Dunfermline
📝 Match Recap
Partick secured a 2-1 victory over Dunfermline in a match that unfolded in two distinct halves. Craig Gilmour's 34th-minute opener handed the visitors an unexpected lead at the break, but Partick's response after the interval proved decisive. Liam Chalmers levelled the contest just ten minutes into the second period before turning provider for Anthony Samuel's 75th-minute winner. The home side's ability to turn the game around reflected their superior form and home advantage, though the pathway to victory proved more complicated than the pre-match data suggested.
Our model predicted a 1-0 Partick win with 35% confidence in a home victory, and while we correctly identified the result direction, the actual scoreline departed from expectations. The Dunfermline opener was the primary deviation—visiting sides rarely trouble Partick at Firhill, and the underlying xG figures (0.95 to 0.75 in Partick's favour) pointed toward a tighter, lower-scoring encounter. Gilmour's goal represented a rare moment of Dunfermline efficiency away from home, disrupting the pattern suggested by their inconsistent recent form. However, our assessment of Partick's home dominance and second-half intensity proved sound; the hosts' comeback illustrated precisely why their home record—including consecutive 2-0 and 1-0 victories in recent fixtures—commands respect. The win maintains Partick's position in what remains a competitive end-of-season battle.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick Win | 5/6 1.85 | 51% | 35% | -16% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 43% | +16% |
| Dunfermline Win | 10/3 4.19 | 22% | 22% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Partick in solid home form (DWWD), Dunfermline inconsistent away (DWDLW)
H2H: Partick dominant at home — 4 wins in last 8, recent home fixtures 2-0 and 1-0
Stakes: Business end of season elevates intensity; both teams competing for final positions
Betting: Bookmakers strongly back home win at 54%; xG model favours Partick 0.95 vs 0.75 — implies tight home victory rather than free-scoring affair
⚔️ Head to Head
Partick have won 4 of the last 8 meetings including both recent home fixtures (2-0 and 1-0). Three draws in the series. Dunfermline's sole H2H win came away. Avg 2.1 goals per game across the series, but recent meetings have trended tighter.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Dunfermline have struggled to find the net consistently (0.84 avg goals scored, blanks in recent matches) and Partick's home defensive record is strong (0.84 avg conceded overall, clean sheets in home run). Dunfermline are unlikely to score against a well-organised Partick backline in what should be a compact, low-block encounter.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
With Partick's xG at 0.95 and Dunfermline's at 0.75, the model projects fewer than 2 expected goals combined. Both sides have shown defensive resilience this season and recent H2H meetings have featured scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 1-0 — pointing firmly toward under 2.5 goals in this fixture.