Dunfermline Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 4)
Partick secured a 2-1 victory over Dunfermline in a match that unfolded in two distinct halves. Craig Gilmour's 34th-minute opener handed the visitors an unexpected lead at the break, but Partick's response after the interval proved decisive. Liam Chalmers levelled the contest just ten minutes into the second period before turning provider for Anthony Samuel's 75th-minute winner. The home side's ability to turn the game around reflected their superior form and home advantage, though the pathway to victory proved more complicated than the pre-match data suggested.
Our model predicted a 1-0 Partick win with 35% confidence in a home victory, and while we correctly identified the result direction, the actual scoreline departed from expectations. The Dunfermline opener was the primary deviation—visiting sides rarely trouble Partick at Firhill, and the underlying xG figures (0.95 to 0.75 in Partick's favour) pointed toward a tighter, lower-scoring encounter. Gilmour's goal represented a rare moment of Dunfermline efficiency away from home, disrupting the pattern suggested by their inconsistent recent form. However, our assessment of Partick's home dominance and second-half intensity proved sound; the hosts' comeback illustrated precisely why their home record—including consecutive 2-0 and 1-0 victories in recent fixtures—commands respect. The win maintains Partick's position in what remains a competitive end-of-season battle.
Dunfermline and Partick cancelled each other out in a tight encounter that ended 1-1, with both sides finding the net within 60 seconds of each other. Craig Morrison's 24th-minute opener for the hosts was immediately nullified by Ben Stanway's response, as Partick showed the clinical finishing that's defined their away form this season. The quick-fire goal sequence left little room for either side to build momentum, and the remainder of the match settled into a cautious rhythm befitting two teams with plenty to play for in the business end of the season.
Our model predicted exactly this outcome: a 1-1 draw with 44% confidence in the result direction. The factors we'd flagged beforehand largely held up under scrutiny. Partick's seven-day rest advantage did manifest in their attacking threat—Stanway's finish was sharp, and their away-game scoring record (1.44 goals per game) remained intact. The wind conditions we'd noted (26.3km/h) appeared to constrain the match's flow; Dunfermline's defensive solidity at home, averaging 0.55 conceded, kept what could have been a higher-scoring contest contained. Both of Goals Tell The Story: both teams' H2H pattern suggested attacking intent, yet Dunfermline's home setup proved difficult to breach beyond Morrison's finish.
The result rewards the model's caution. While Partick's freshness suggested potential dominance, Dunfermline's defensive organisation and the environmental factors worked against a one-sided affair. A shared point feels appropriate given the underlying form dynamics, with both sides leaving with legitimate claims of tactical competence.
Arbroath and Dunfermline served up a stalemate at Gayfield, with neither side able to break the deadlock in a match that finished goalless. The draw extends both teams' recent trend towards tighter defensive play, particularly from the visitors, who continued their pattern of disciplined away performances. For Arbroath, the result represents another low-scoring outing at home, consistent with their averaging under one goal in front of their own supporters this season.
Our model predicted a 1-1 draw with 49% confidence in the result direction, and while we correctly anticipated the outcome category, the exact scoreline proved elusive. The prediction leaned on historical volatility in this fixture—recent meetings have swung between four and five-goal affairs—and flagged both sides as capable of finding the net. However, the goalless outcome reflects a more pragmatic reality than our Poisson models anticipated. Dunfermline's defensive discipline on the road held firm, while Arbroath's attacking output continued to underperform their home baseline. The business end of the season intensity we flagged did materialise, but it manifested more as caution than attacking ambition from both camps.
The draw leaves little separation in the final reckoning, with both sides securing a point in what amounts to a holding operation. From a predictive standpoint, this match demonstrates how historical H2H patterns can mask shifts in current form and tactical approach. Dunfermline's away record proved more influential than the fixture's traditional goal-scoring narrative, while Arbroath's home constraints remained stubbornly real. The 0-0 was the outlier we didn't adequately weight.
Dunfermline broke the deadlock early and held firm to claim a 1-0 victory over Arbroath, with C. Kane's seventh-minute finish proving the difference. A. Tod provided the assist for what would be the match's only goal, a clinical start that ultimately decided a contest neither side was able to unlock thereafter. The result keeps Dunfermline moving in their home campaign, while Arbroath departs with a defeat that extends their away struggles.
Our model predicted a 1-1 draw with 49% confidence, missing both the result direction and the exact scoreline. The prediction favoured a cagey encounter with goals at a premium, shaped by Arbroath's modest away-day output (0.72 goals per game) and the 0-0 between these sides in their most recent meeting. Those defensive foundations held true in spirit—the match stayed low-scoring—but the volatility in their head-to-head record, which has swung between 4-2 wins and 0-5 losses, reasserted itself. Dunfermline's home averages of 1.28 goals scored proved more decisive than anticipated, while Arbroath's inability to register away from home (drawing a blank despite decent opportunities) left them chasing the game without delivering an equaliser.
The late-season context likely sharpened both teams' focus, though Dunfermline's early goal appeared to settle the affair. While our model weighted BTTS as plausible given recent meetings where both sides had scored, the cautious tone suggested Under 2.5, which the final score affirmed. This was a case where one team's superior output at home, combined with their opponent's away-day frailty, ultimately overwrote the usual unpredictability markers in this fixture.
🌱 Building History
We've only predicted 4 matches for Dunfermline so far. As more fixtures are scheduled and predicted, accuracy stats and patterns will become more reliable.