San Diego vs FC Dallas
📖 The Preview
San Diego are down near the bottom of the table and desperately need points, but pressure doesn't always translate into results, and their recent form of just one win in their last ten games tells you everything you need to know. FC Dallas have been the stronger side lately and despite that head-to-head record favouring the hosts, Dallas look sharper and are priced as favourites for good reason. This one's got goals in it both ways, but Dallas have just enough quality to nick it 3-2 and take the three points back home.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Win | 1/1 2.04 | 46% | 34% | -12% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.85 | 24% | 21% | -3% |
| FC Dallas Win Value | 2/1 3.10 | 30% | 45% | +15% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 San Diego in relegation danger (P13/15)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: San Diego LLDWDDLLLL — poor, only 10% win rate at home; FC Dallas DWWLWWLLDD — solid, 40% win rate away
H2H: 3 meetings averaging 5.3 goals, San Diego dominant at home but Dallas dangerous; last meeting was a 3-3 draw
Stakes: San Diego in relegation danger (P13/15) providing desperation boost, FC Dallas mid-table with less urgency
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-3.
⚔️ Head to Head
High-scoring fixture trend — all 3 recent meetings produced 5+ goals combined; San Diego have home dominance in H2H but Dallas are in much better current form, suggesting a competitive multi-goal game
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-3 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-3 scoreline totals 5 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.