St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
📖 The Preview
St. Louis City have been flying lately, winning seven of their last ten, and at home they look a serious proposition. Real Salt Lake are wobbling badly, losing five of their last ten, and they're heading into this one without Glad, Guilavogui through suspension, Hezarkhani, and Piol — that's a lot of disruption to absorb on the road. RSL will nick one, the BTTS suggests that much, but City's current momentum and Salt Lake's defensive absentees point firmly towards a 3-1 home win.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win Value | 11/10 2.11 | 44% | 58% | +14% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.71 | 25% | 19% | -6% |
| Real Salt Lake Win | 2/1 3.07 | 31% | 23% | -8% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Louis City on a strong run (WWWWDD) with 2.17 avg goals scored at home; RSL struggling away (LLDLL) averaging 1.49 goals scored overall
H2H: High-scoring fixture history (3.6 avg goals/game); last meeting at home ended 2-2, suggesting RSL can threaten but STL edges it
Stakes: Both teams mid-table with normal motivation, slight home advantage edge
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Historically high-scoring series averaging 3.6 goals per game with neutral dominance (3 RSL wins, 3 draws, 1 STL win), but STL's current home form and RSL's injury/suspension issues tip this edition in the home side's favour.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.