USA vs Senegal
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Win Value | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 65% | +28% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.20 | 29% | 17% | -12% |
| Senegal Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 18% | -16% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured USA (37% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: USA (193d) vs Senegal (132d) — USA significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: USA averaging 2.42 goals scored with 60% win rate; Senegal averaging 1.93 goals scored but conceding just 1.03 per game away
H2H: Limited historical data available between these sides
Stakes: Pre-World Cup friendly — both teams use this for preparation but USA has home crowd advantage and superior rest
Betting: BTTS supported by USA's high-scoring attack and Senegal's ability to find the net (1.93 avg goals scored); Over 2.5 strongly supported by USA xG of 3.33 and model projecting 3-1 as top scoreline
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to draw meaningful trends; defaulting to form and statistical model
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
USA's high-powered attack averaging 2.42 goals per game should penetrate Senegal's defence, while Senegal demonstrated their own attacking quality with scores of 3-1 and 3-0 recently and average 1.93 goals per game — they are capable of netting even against a solid USA backline, making both teams scoring highly plausible.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
With USA's xG sitting at 3.33 and their recent results including a 5-1 win, combined with Senegal's own attacking output averaging nearly 2 goals per game, a total of 4 goals (3-1) comfortably clears the 2.5 threshold — the statistical model projects over 2.5 as the most likely scenario at this fixture.