USA vs Senegal
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Win Value | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 65% | +28% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.20 | 29% | 17% | -12% |
| Senegal Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 18% | -16% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured USA (37% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: USA (193d) vs Senegal (132d) — USA significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: USA averaging 2.42 goals scored with 60% win rate; Senegal averaging 1.93 goals scored but conceding just 1.03 per game away
H2H: Limited historical data available between these sides
Stakes: Pre-World Cup friendly — both teams use this for preparation but USA has home crowd advantage and superior rest
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to draw meaningful trends; defaulting to form and statistical model
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.