Jaguars at Broncos
Win Probabilities
From the engine's power ratings, adjusted for home field and rest, then mapped through the margin distribution. Not a blend of the market — this is our own number.
Engine vs The Line
We agree with the market on the winner. The margins may still differ.
Matchup Facts
Venue and rest come from the schedule feed and feed directly into the model; surface and weather are context we show but don't yet model.
How The Model Sees It
Our rating has Denver Broncos as the stronger side by 36 rating points, which on its own is worth about 1.5 points on the scoreboard (JAX 1,586, DEN 1,623).
Home field adds 1.4 points to DEN — a measured figure from our backtest, not the traditional three, because home advantage in the modern NFL is considerably smaller than it used to be. Rest shifts it a further -0.1 points (JAX 7 days, DEN 6).
That lands on a projected margin of +2.8, and running that through the historical spread of actual results against projections gives Denver Broncos at 58%.
The closing line agrees on the winner, making Denver Broncos favourite by 2.5 against our 2.8.
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