Al-Hazm Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 4)
Al-Qadisiyah FC dispatched Al-Hazm with clinical efficiency on Saturday, securing a 2-0 victory that reinforced their status as genuine contenders in the Pro League's business end. Javier Quinones broke the deadlock in the 14th minute with an assist from M. Al Juwayr, establishing early dominance that Al-Hazm never threatened to overturn. The visitors offered little resistance throughout, and Abdullah Al Hazazi's 86th-minute finish merely confirmed what had been apparent for most of the afternoon: this was a mismatch in motivation and form.
Our model predicted a 3-0 scoreline with 81 percent confidence in an Al-Qadisiyah victory, and while the result direction proved correct, the exact margin fell short. The underlying factors we'd identified before kickoff—Al-Qadisiyah's formidable home record, Al-Hazm's winless away streak, and the historical trend of high-scoring meetings between these sides—all manifested in a dominant performance. What the model missed was the precision of Al-Qadisiyah's finishing. They controlled possession and territory sufficiently to justify victory, yet converted fewer chances than the pre-match analysis had suggested they would. Al-Hazm's 0.67 expected goals proved optimistic; they simply never mustered the attacking intent to threaten a defensive unit that concedes just 1.28 goals per game at home.
The gap between prediction and reality highlights a familiar reality in football: dominant performances don't always translate to the scoreline anticipated. Al-Qadisiyah got the win that matters; the third goal would have merely been decoration.
Al Najma and Al-Hazm served up a pulsating second-half comeback that left our pre-match prediction in tatters. The relegated hosts trailed 1-2 at halftime after a chaotic opening 45 minutes—Felippe Cardoso's third-minute opener was quickly cancelled out by O. Al Somah's reply in the eighth, before A. Al Dhuwayhi's 42nd-minute strike appeared to have shifted momentum decisively toward Al-Hazm. Yet Al Najma's N. Al Haleel hauled them level just before the interval with an assist from R. Al Tulayhi, and that levelling goal set the tone for a second half in which neither side could find a breakthrough. The final whistle came with the scoreline locked at 2-2.
Our model predicted a 1-2 scoreline with a 48 percent probability favoring Al-Hazm, so we got the result direction entirely wrong. The draw fell within our 30 percent confidence band but wasn't our primary expectation. What we correctly anticipated was the both-teams-to-score outcome—our H2H analysis flagged that all three recent meetings between these sides saw goals at both ends, and the 2-2 result vindicated that reasoning. Where we miscalculated was Al Najma's motivation. Despite being mathematically relegated with nothing to play for, they showed enough fight to claw back into the match rather than capitulate. Al-Hazm's mid-table status also appeared less influential on performance than anticipated; they couldn't hold their advantage when it mattered most. The fixture proved more competitive than the pre-match narrative suggested, a reminder that even well-flagged psychological factors don't always manifest as cleanly as expected.
NEOM and Al-Hazm played out a 1-1 draw in a match that unfolded almost exactly as low-motivation territory typically does: early directness, then tactical caution. Said Benrahma broke the deadlock for NEOM in the 7th minute following a clinical finish from Kone's assist, giving the home side what looked like it might be a decisive advantage. That lead lasted 51 minutes before Al-Hazm's Abdulrahman Al Shanqiti leveled from Loïc Rosier's assist in the 58th, dragging the hosts back into parity for the remainder.
Our model predicted a 1-0 NEOM victory with 52% win probability, anchored heavily on NEOM's significant rest advantage (17 days versus Al-Hazm's four) and the home side's recent domestic form. The direction of the result—favoring NEOM—was called correctly by the win probability distribution, but we missed the draw outcome, which carried 33% backing but didn't materialize as the actual result. What we flagged as likely proved partially true: Al-Hazm's away struggles were evident enough that they needed an assist-dependent finish rather than dominant play. The rest advantage was neutralized not by Al-Hazm's attacking prowess but by their defensive organization, which held firm enough to salvage a point.
The match reinforced a familiar pattern with mid-table sides playing without clear motivation. NEOM's early strike was clinical rather than inevitable, and their inability to add a second during a 40-minute spell of control allowed Al-Hazm back into the contest. Neither side generated the sustained attacking pressure their positions might have suggested, resulting in exactly the kind of cagey, low-volume affair the pre-match analysis anticipated—just with an unexpected narrative arc.
Al-Hazm made their home advantage count against Al Riyadh in a match that unfolded almost exactly as our pre-match model anticipated. The hosts claimed a 2-1 victory through Lionel Rosier's 49th-minute equaliser and Youssef Al Shammari's 90th-minute penalty, sandwiching Toze's first-half spot-kick for the visitors. The result vindicated our prediction of a 2-1 scoreline with 59% probability assigned to Al-Hazm, though the path to victory proved more dramatic than a straightforward performance might have suggested.
The match reflected the underlying dynamics we'd identified beforehand. Al Riyadh's relegation-zone status combined with their abysmal away record—just one win in five on the road—suggested a team likely to absorb pressure rather than impose it. Toze's penalty gave them an unexpected lifeline, but Al-Hazm's fortress status at home (five games unbeaten with four wins) ultimately prevailed. The hosts' ability to respond immediately after the interval through Rosier set the tone, and their composure from the spot in the closing stages sealed matters. Our H2H analysis had flagged Al Riyadh's historical weakness against this opponent—they've never beaten Al-Hazm across five meetings—and that pattern held despite the early penalty.
The exact scoreline call reflected our model's assessment that goal frequency would cluster around 2-3 total, informed by the H2H average of 1.6 goals per game and the statistical imbalance between a secure home side and an anxious visitor. Al-Hazm's display lacked polish but delivered the result their superior positioning demanded.
🌱 Building History
We've only predicted 4 matches for Al-Hazm so far. As more fixtures are scheduled and predicted, accuracy stats and patterns will become more reliable.