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🏆 World Cup 2026 Predictor
We ran the entire World Cup 10,000 times
using current Elo ratings and the official FIFA bracket. Here's what happened.
Updated 3 days ago ·
1,040,000 match rolls per run ·
Run completed in 1s
● Title Win Probability — Top 12
👑
SpainH
22.4%
32.8%
45%
57%
2
ArgentinaJ
15.1%
24.8%
37%
51%
3
FranceI
10.7%
18.6%
33%
49%
4
EnglandL
6.9%
13.3%
24%
40%
5
BrazilC
5.1%
10.6%
21%
36%
6
PortugalK
4.9%
10.2%
19%
35%
7
ColombiaK
4.4%
9.2%
18%
33%
8
NetherlandsF
3.4%
6.9%
16%
32%
9
EcuadorE
2.9%
6.9%
15%
29%
10
GermanyE
2.8%
6.6%
15%
28%
11
TürkiyeD
2.4%
5.4%
11%
27%
12
SwitzerlandB
2.3%
5.5%
13%
30%
Based on 10,000 simulations using current Elo ratings.
Percentages sum to >100% across teams because each team can reach multiple rounds.
● Title Odds — Model vs Market vs Blended
👑
SpainH
22.4%
14.9%
19.0%
2
FranceI
10.7%
14.2%
12.9%
3
ArgentinaJ
15.1%
8.5%
11.8%
4
EnglandL
6.9%
11.4%
9.2%
6
PortugalK
4.9%
7.8%
6.4%
7
GermanyE
2.8%
5.7%
4.1%
8
NetherlandsF
3.4%
3.7%
3.7%
9
ColombiaK
4.4%
2.1%
3.2%
10
NorwayI
2.1%
2.4%
2.3%
11
BelgiumG
1.9%
2.4%
2.2%
12
EcuadorE
2.9%
1.1%
1.8%
Our Elo model combined with de-vigged bookmaker futures via a geometric pool
(50% model / 50% market).
The blended column is our best single estimate; teams with no quoted market price show the model value.
● Group Stage — Who Wins Each Group?
Mexico
62%
96%
South Korea
19%
76%
Czechia
17%
72%
South Africa
3%
26%
Switzerland
50%
96%
Canada
42%
94%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
6%
56%
Qatar
1%
18%
Brazil
60%
96%
Morocco
22%
79%
Scotland
16%
72%
Haiti
2%
22%
Türkiye
40%
82%
Paraguay
24%
70%
USA
20%
63%
Australia
17%
59%
Ecuador
46%
96%
Germany
45%
95%
Ivory Coast
8%
67%
Curaçao
1%
12%
Netherlands
48%
91%
Japan
38%
88%
Sweden
10%
53%
Tunisia
5%
35%
Belgium
53%
92%
Iran
27%
79%
Egypt
15%
65%
New Zealand
5%
35%
Spain
80%
100%
Uruguay
18%
90%
Cape Verde
1%
31%
Saudi Arabia
1%
29%
France
57%
95%
Norway
24%
82%
Senegal
17%
74%
Iraq
2%
20%
Argentina
75%
98%
Austria
14%
71%
Algeria
8%
55%
Jordan
4%
39%
Portugal
46%
92%
Colombia
43%
91%
Uzbekistan
7%
48%
Congo DR
4%
35%
England
59%
97%
Croatia
32%
90%
Panama
9%
63%
Ghana
1%
16%
Win % = chance to top the group ·
Advance % = chance to reach the Round of 32 (top 2 or best 3rd-place).
● Dark Horses — Lowest-Ranked Teams Likely to Make Knockouts
New Zealand
Group G · Elo 1,562
35% chance to reach Round of 32
Cape Verde
Group H · Elo 1,578
31% chance to reach Round of 32
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B · Elo 1,595
56% chance to reach Round of 32
Tunisia
Group F · Elo 1,628
35% chance to reach Round of 32
Congo DR
Group K · Elo 1,661
35% chance to reach Round of 32
How it works
Our predictor runs the World Cup 10,000 times. Each simulation plays
every group match, identifies the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams, then runs
the official FIFA knockout bracket all the way through to the final.
Match outcomes are sampled via Poisson distributions calibrated against each team's current
Elo rating, the gold-standard for
international football strength. The three host nations (USA, Canada, Mexico) receive a home-advantage
boost equivalent to ~75 Elo points for their group-stage matches. Knockout ties resolve through
extra time (Elo-weighted) and then penalties (true 50/50, since shootouts statistically are coin flips).
Probabilities update after every round of real matches. The model doesn't currently apply any manual squad
adjustments — every team's Elo is its raw eloratings.net value.
For individual match predictions, see our homepage.
Run ID: wc2026-20260607-180803-a4b9 ·
For entertainment purposes only. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org