We simulated the knockout stage 10,000 times from the actual Round of 32, using current Elo ratings. Here's how it's likely to play out.
Based on 10,000 simulations using current Elo ratings. Percentages sum to >100% across teams because each team can reach multiple rounds.
Our Elo model combined with de-vigged bookmaker futures via a geometric pool (50% model / 50% market). The blended column is our best single estimate; teams with no quoted market price show the model value.
The group stage is complete, so we no longer simulate it. Each run takes the real Round of 32 exactly as drawn from the results so far, then plays the official FIFA knockout bracket all the way through — R32 → R16 → quarter-finals → semi-finals → final — 10,000 times. Ties that have already been played are locked to their real result; the rest are simulated.
Match outcomes are sampled via Poisson distributions calibrated against each team's current Elo rating, the gold-standard for international football strength. Knockouts are played at neutral venues, so no host bonus applies. Ties resolve through extra time (Elo-weighted) and then penalties (true 50/50, since shootouts statistically are coin flips).
Probabilities update after every round of real matches. The model doesn't currently apply any manual squad adjustments — every team's Elo is its raw eloratings.net value. For individual match predictions, see our homepage.
Run ID: wc2026-20260725-080006-c3b3 ·
For entertainment purposes only. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org