MLB Postseason · 8th Day Engine

World Series 2026 Bracket

Our model's projected road to the title — Wild Card through the World Series. The gold route traces the projected champion's path; each series shows its head-to-head odds, while the title-odds panel weighs every possible path. Seeded from live standings and re-projected daily as the race plays out.

Projection by regressed team strength (run differential) · series odds exact, no simulation · updates daily

↔ scroll to follow the bracket — American League · World Series · National League

AL Wild Card

RaysBYE

Best of 3

Yankees#455%

Red Sox#545%

Best of 3

Astros#356%

Rangers#644%

White SoxBYE

AL Division

Best of 5

Rays#148%

Yankees#452%

Best of 5

White Sox#258%

Astros#342%

AL Championship

Best of 7

Yankees#456%

White Sox#244%

🏆

World Series

Best of 7

Yankees#444%

Brewers#156%

Head-to-head — the odds if these two meet in the final.

Most Likely Champion

Brewers

19.0% to win it all

81% chance it's someone else

Title Odds

Overall chance to win it all — earlier rounds included.

Brewers19.0%

Braves16.7%

Rays11.8%

Dodgers11.0%

White Sox10.4%

NL Championship

Best of 7

Brewers#150%

Dodgers#350%

NL Division

Best of 5

Brewers#154%

Cubs#446%

Best of 5

Braves#250%

Dodgers#350%

NL Wild Card

BrewersBYE

Best of 3

Cubs#464%

Phillies#536%

Best of 3

Dodgers#365%

D-backs#635%

BravesBYE

How Reliable Is This Bracket?

We scored this model against every postseason series from 2023 to 2025 — 33 series, with team strength frozen at the end of each regular season, exactly what this page knows today. Here is what came back.

series tested

2023–2025, Wild Card through World Series

61%

favourites won

20 of 33 — barely better than a coin toss

54%

we said they would

the model rarely calls a series more lopsided than that

Playoff baseball is close to a coin flip, and that is not a flaw in the model — it is the sport. Every October field is made of good teams, and a best-of-five between two 95-win clubs is near enough 50/50 however carefully you model it. That is why the leader above sits nearer 15% than 50%: the most likely champion is still, overwhelmingly, not going to be the champion.

The 2023 Diamondbacks are the case in point. This model gave them 34% to survive their Wild Card round. They reached the World Series. Nothing on this page would have told you that was coming, and no honest model would have.

So use the bracket for what it is worth: a well-reasoned map of who has the easier road and the better odds, not a prophecy. We publish the percentages precisely because they are the honest part — and we grade every prediction we make on the accuracy page, misses included.