Bahia vs Corinthians
📖 The Preview
Bahia are slight favourites here and the 2-1 reflects that nicely. Playing at home with a 54% win probability and a decent head-to-head record, they're expected to edge it. Corinthians have had nine days rest compared to Bahia's four, which helps them stay in the game and grab a goal, but they're sitting in mid-table with nothing much to play for, and that lack of motivation tends to show eventually. Bahia's home advantage should be enough to nick it late.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia Win Value | 11/10 2.10 | 44% | 54% | +10% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.33 | 28% | 30% | +2% |
| Corinthians Win | 5/2 3.43 | 28% | 16% | -12% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Corinthians mid-table (P13) — low motivation
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Corinthians (9d) vs Bahia (4d) — Corinthians significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bahia strong at home (WWWD), averaging 1.44 goals scored overall; Corinthians averaging 1.51 goals scored with inconsistent away form (DWDLD)
H2H: 8 meetings split evenly (3-2-3), avg 2.8 goals/game, Corinthians scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
Stakes: Bahia in 6th pushing for upper table; Corinthians mid-table 13th with low motivation — home side more driven
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 5 H2H meetings produced goals for both sides in 4 of 5 fixtures, with Bahia winning the two most recent encounters 2-1 away; head-to-head is evenly balanced but recent momentum favours Bahia.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.