Santos vs Chapecoense-sc
📖 The Preview
Santos are in a desperate spot at 15th, just two points above the drop zone, and that kind of fear can light a fire. Chapecoense are rock bottom with seemingly no way out, and their recent form backs that up. Santos have won five of eight head-to-heads and their home form gives them a massive edge here. Chapecoense will probably sit deep and make it scrappy, but a 2-0 home win feels right given the gulf in quality and Santos's urgent need for points.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Win Value | 2/5 1.42 | 67% | 78% | +11% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.55 | 21% | 11% | -10% |
| Chapecoense-sc Win | 6/1 7.50 | 12% | 11% | -1% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Santos in relegation danger (P15, only 2 pt cushion)
- 🆘 Chapecoense-sc in relegation danger (P20/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Santos averaging 2.53 goals scored per game with last home scores of 4-1, 3-0, 3-1 — clinical in front of goal; Chapecoense averaging only 0.93 goals scored with 0-4, 0-2, 0-3 in recent away form
H2H: Santos dominant at home with 5 wins in 8 meetings; home team wins have a pattern across these fixtures
Stakes: Santos desperate to escape P15 relegation zone with only 2pt cushion; Chapecoense bottom of the table but exhausted and depleted — both motivated but Santos massively better resourced for this one
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Santos have won 5 of the last 8 meetings with home dominance the recurring pattern; recent away wins for Chapecoense came in Chapecó not at Santos — Santos at home have kept them quiet in Jul 2024 (1-0) and Nov 2021 (2-0), supporting a clean sheet narrative today
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.