Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol
📖 The Preview
Both sides are deep in the muck at the bottom of the table, so this is a proper six-pointer. Mirassol have looked the sharper side lately and come in with a full week's rest compared to Vasco's two days, which matters more than people give it credit for. Vasco's head-to-head record against Mirassol is awful too, three losses from three. Still, that desperation at home counts for something, and Vasco edge it 2-1, nicking a winner on their own patch despite Mirassol grabbing one back.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama Win | 1/1 2.05 | 46% | 39% | -7% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.35 | 28% | 23% | -5% |
| Mirassol Win Value | 11/4 3.72 | 26% | 38% | +12% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Vasco DA Gama in relegation danger (P17, only 1 pt cushion)
- 🆘 Mirassol in relegation danger (P18/20)
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Mirassol (7d) vs Vasco DA Gama (2d) — Mirassol significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Vasco poor overall (30% win rate, conceding 1.81/game), Mirassol strong (60% win rate, only conceding 1.23/game)
H2H: Mirassol 3W-0D-0L in last 3, averaging 3.3 goals per game — clear away dominance
Stakes: Both sides in relegation battle; Mirassol marginally worse placed (P18) but fresher and in better form
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Mirassol have won all 3 recent meetings, including a 2-1 away win in Jan 2026 and a 2-0 at Vasco in Dec 2025. Clear away dominance with high-scoring encounters averaging 3.3 goals.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.