Belgium vs Senegal
Likely line-up
📖 The Preview
Belgium are slight favourites here and a 2-1 win feels about right for where both sides are at. The win probabilities are fairly tight, which tells you Senegal aren't just making up the numbers, and they'll likely get on the scoresheet themselves — both teams to score is expected, and over two and a half goals in total. But Belgium have just enough quality to edge it. Senegal will make it uncomfortable, mind you, so don't expect a cruise. A narrow Belgian victory is the call.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium Win | 11/10 2.15 | 45% | 44% | -1% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.20 | 30% | 29% | -1% |
| Senegal Win | 11/4 3.74 | 25% | 27% | +2% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Belgium strong at home (DDW) with clinical attack; Senegal poor away (LLDL) but high-scoring overall
H2H: Limited data available for this fixture
Stakes: World Cup knockout stage — both sides fully motivated, reducing likelihood of passive play
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — World Cup meetings between these sides are rare, but both nations have shown high-scoring tendencies in recent international fixtures making goals likely.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.