Botafogo vs Gremio
📖 The Preview
Botafogo look the value here and a 2-1 home win feels right. Their recent form is solid, winning six of their last eight, while Gremio have been all over the place, picking up just two wins in ten and currently sitting in the relegation zone with barely a point of breathing room. That pressure can go either way, and Gremio do nick a goal to make it nervy, but Botafogo's home advantage and superior consistency should see them over the line with two of their own.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo Win Value | 8/11 1.73 | 54% | 60% | +6% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 21% | -5% |
| Gremio Win | 4/1 4.80 | 20% | 19% | -1% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Gremio in relegation danger (P16, only 1 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Botafogo averaging 1.83 goals scored, 0.81 conceded with 63% win rate; Gremio averaging 1.47 scored but 1.7 conceded, away record LLW
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 4.3 goals, recent meetings include 5-3 and 3-2 outcomes — goals expected from both sides
Stakes: Gremio in serious relegation danger (P16, 1pt cushion) — desperate for points, expect maximum effort and attacking intent
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Highly volatile fixture — last 5 meetings produced 5-3, 3-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2. Average of 4.3 goals per game signals both teams tend to score, though a 0-0 does exist, recent trend leans toward open, high-scoring games.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.