Mirassol vs Remo
📖 The Preview
This is essentially a basement battle, with both sides scrapping to avoid the drop, but Mirassol get the nod here with a 2-0 home win. Playing in front of their own fans with that relegation gun to their heads tends to focus minds, and the numbers back them up strongly at 63% to win. Remo are missing Patrick de Paula with a groin problem and Joao Lucas with a knee injury, which hurts their options, and with neither side looking like a goal machine, Mirassol quietly doing enough to keep a clean sheet and nick two feels about right.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol Win Value | 4/6 1.70 | 55% | 63% | +8% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.58 | 26% | 17% | -9% |
| Remo Win | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 20% | +1% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Mirassol in relegation danger (P18/20)
- 🆘 Remo in relegation danger (P19/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Mirassol strong at home (WWWDW), Remo shaky away with fatigue concerns
H2H: Only 2 meetings, Remo dominated both but averaged 4 goals/game — however away context and injuries shift this
Stakes: Both in relegation battle, but Mirassol at home with crowd advantage have the stronger drive
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — only 2 meetings, both played at Remo's ground. Remo won both on home soil but Mirassol face them at home this time with a significant fitness and injury advantage.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.