Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama
📖 The Preview
This is a desperate six-pointer at the bottom of the Brasileirão, and it's Vasco who look likelier to nick it. Chapecoense are rooted to the foot of the table, and their recent form is patchy at best, which makes home advantage feel pretty hollow here. Vasco aren't exactly flying either, but they've historically been the dominant side in this fixture, and with both teams likely to be cautious and tight, one goal could well settle it. A low-scoring, scrappy away win makes plenty of sense.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc Win Value | 9/4 3.20 | 29% | 35% | +6% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 32% | +3% |
| Vasco DA Gama Win | 6/5 2.20 | 42% | 33% | -9% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Chapecoense-sc in relegation danger (P20/20)
- 🆘 Vasco DA Gama in relegation danger (P17, only 1 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Chapecoense averaging 1.1 goals scored, 2.08 conceded — leaky defence at home; Vasco averaging 1.18 scored, 1.74 conceded with slightly better defensive structure
H2H: 6 draws and 2 Vasco wins in last 8 — Vasco are the only side to have won this fixture, draw-prone but Vasco edge it when there is a result
Stakes: Both clubs in relegation danger — Chapecoense bottom (P20), Vasco on thin 1-point cushion (P17); desperation on both sides but Chapecoense's anxiety at home may cause defensive errors
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Heavily draw-prone series (6 draws in 8), but Vasco da Gama hold all two outright wins — 0 wins for Chapecoense. When a result does happen, it tends to favour Vasco.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.