Brann vs Valerenga
📖 The Preview
Brann are heavy favourites here and it's not hard to see why. They've won six of seven head-to-heads against Valerenga, and while their recent form has been a bit patchy, that home record against this opponent is the kind of thing that matters. Valerenga sit mid-table with not much to play for, which doesn't exactly inspire heroics, and Brann's 71% win probability reflects that pretty fairly. Valerenga will nick one back to make it interesting, but Brann should have enough to see it out 2-1.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann Win Value | 8/11 1.71 | 54% | 71% | +17% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.13 | 23% | 17% | -6% |
| Valerenga Win | 3/1 4.00 | 23% | 12% | -11% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Valerenga mid-table (P9) — low motivation
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Valerenga (9d) vs Brann (2d) — Valerenga significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Brann averaging 1.65 scored/1.59 conceded overall, home form mixed (WLLW); Valerenga averaging 2.05 scored but away form LDLL
H2H: Brann dominant — 6 wins in last 7 H2H, avg 4.1 goals/game, recent scores 3-2, 4-2, 2-1
Stakes: Valerenga mid-table (P9) with low motivation; Brann slightly higher (P6) with normal motivation — edge to Brann
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Brann have won 6 of the last 7 meetings including a 3-2 and a 4-2 (as away side), averaging 4.1 goals per game — a historically high-scoring and home-dominant fixture strongly favouring Brann.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.